ISO-NE projects slow growth in electricity demand

New England's electric grid operator predicts slow growth in annual energy usage in the region over the next decade, with slightly quicker growth in peak demand.

A Maine power plant -- the ecomaine Waste-to-Energy plant in Portland, Maine.

ISO New England, Inc. develops an annual long-term load forecast using factors including state and regional economic forecasts and 40 years of weather history.  Its most recent baseline forecast projects a compound annual growth rate of 1.0% in total energy usage in New England from 2015 to 2024.  For 2015, ISO-NE projects 138,745 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of load, growing to 152,280 GWh in 2024.

ISO-NE's forecast also projects future peak demand, a measure of the highest amount of electricity used in a single hour in New England.  Often, peak demand drives the need for constructing and maintaining power plants and transmission lines (and energy efficiency investments).  According to the latest ISO-NE forecast, New England's peak electricity demand is projected to rise by a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, from 28,395 MW this year to 31,905 MW in 2024.

These baseline projections for future peak demand and energy usage take into account load reductions that can be expected from future installations of distributed solar photovoltaic facilities.  ISO-NE has prepared a separate Distributed Generation Forecast to estimate the load-reducing effects of distributed solar facilities developed as a result of state policy goals.

ISO-NE's baseline projections do not account for significant energy-efficiency savings, neither those committed through the region’s three-year Forward Capacity Market (FCM) nor future savings that can be expected beyond the FCM timeframe.

FERC seeks demand response standards

Demand response, an innovative strategy to ensuring the integrity of electric grids, is growing in popularity, prompting federal regulators to consider standardizing how demand response performance is measured.

Managing an electric grid entails ensuring a constant balance between electric generation and customer demand for electricity.  As customer demand rises, grid operators have traditionally called on more and more generating units.  In most markets, grid operators dispatch the lowest-cost units first to keep overall costs down.  As a result, generating units needed to meet peak demand tend to be more expensive than baseload generation.  Many peaking units also emit more pollutants per unit of energy than baseload units.

In a demand response program, customers can volunteer to be available to reduce their load during times of peak demand.  When done right, this reduction in customer demand can play much the same role as dispatching additional generation, but at a lower cost in dollars and environmental impacts.  Energy efficiency resources can also play a similar role.

The U.S. Congress and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have both recognized that demand response can be a decentralized, crowd-sourced alternative to peaking power plants.  Utilities and regional transmission organizations across the nation are implementing demand response programs.

As demand response grows in importance, the question of how to measure a customer's performance is important.  Different utilities and regions have adopted varying standards for how performance is measured.  In an attempt to standardize the measurement and verification of demand response and energy efficiency resources participating in organized wholesale electricity markets, the FERC has proposed to amend its regulations to incorporate by reference the demand-side management and energy efficiency business practice standards of the North American Energy Standards Board.  NAESB describes itself as "an industry forum for the development and promotion of standards which will lead to a seamless marketplace for wholesale and retail natural gas and electricity, as recognized by its customers, business community, participants, and regulatory entities."

In its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (29-page PDF), Standards for Business Practices and Communication Protocols for Public Utilities, 139 FERC ¶ 61,041, FERC states its hope that "[a]doption of these standards is intended to improve the methods and procedures used to accurately measure demand response and energy efficiency resource performance" and that their adoption should help regional grid operators "properly credit demand response and energy efficiency resources for their services".

FERC releases report on demand response

Demand response is an innovative smart-grid approach to meeting society's electricity needs. As customer demands on electric grids increase, the generating resources needed to meet higher and higher peak demands are typically more expensive to run and have more adverse environmental impacts.  In essence, demand response means covering electric load by having individuals or companies agree to temporarily cut back on electricity consumption in response to peak demand conditions.  When customers are willing to provide this service at a lower cost than generation, demand response can be a decentralized, crowd-sourced alternative to peaking power plants.

U.S. federal regulatory staff released a report this week assessing the nation's demand response and smart  meter resources.  The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff report is the sixth annual briefing since the enactment of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which contained provisions promoting the development of demand response resources and markets.

The report notes that more and more customers have access to the kind of advanced meters that facilitate demand response participation.  These smart meters can not only measure instantaneous electricity demand, but typically report back to a utility automatically using radio frequency communications.  Since 2009, advanced meters have risen from 8.7% to a 13.4% share of all installed meters.  The report suggests that the actual penetration rate of advanced meters may be even higher if it includes meters that are installed but whose advanced features have not yet been activated.

The report also notes that in 2010, the grid operators it surveyed had a total of 31,702 MW of demand response resource potential, or enough to cover about 7% of the total 2010 peak demand.  Regional demand response capacities ranged from as low as 2.3% of peak load in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to as high as 10.5% in the mid-Atlantic region's PJM Interconnection.  The report noted that demand response resourcs "made significant contributions to balancing supply and demand during system emergencies" in 2011.

Demand response, customer-provided grid support

This summer, the electric grid has largely weathered the increased demand for power during heat waves.  Grid operators have a variety of tools to ensure sufficient energy supply to meet peak demands.  In recent years, the smart-grid star in the grid's toolkit has been demand response: programs that allow customers to respond to signals about the scarcity of electricity by temporarily reducing their consumption from the grid.  This summer, customer-provided demand response has not only kept the lights on, but has also reduced society’s energy costs by reducing the need for the most expensive marginal peaking generation units.

Last March, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a landmark ruling that demand response should be compensated fairly.  In this ruling – Order No. 745 – FERC held that demand resources should be paid at market-based prices when two criteria are met: capability and cost-effectiveness.  When demand resources can displace the need for bringing additional generation online, and when doing so lowers our grid costs, Order No. 745 requires organized wholesale energy market operators to pay demand response resources for the full value they provide to the grid.

Now, some regional grid operators are proposing major changes to their demand response programs.  While some of these changes are designed to comply with Order No. 745, other changes seek to place new limits on who can participate in demand response.  For example, northeastern grid operator ISO New England has asked FERC to approve its proposal to eliminate the demand response value provided by consumers capable of using existing on-site generation to produce power to support the grid during times of crisis.

Decades of federal and state policy have supported investment in distributed generation projects, ranging from micro-combined heat and power (micro-CHP) and cogeneration to small and medium-sized wind, rooftop solar photovoltaic systems and even fuel cells.  Distributed generation has a strong history of policy support, but if FERC accepts ISO New England’s proposal to limit behind-the-meter generation’s ability to provide demand response, the region will need other resources to keep the lights on during times of peak demand – new generating units, transmission lines, and substations.

FERC has docketed ISO New England’s request as Docket No. ER11-4336-000, and is accepting public comment through 5:00 pm Eastern time on Friday, September 09, 2011.

June 8 - BP reports China passes US in energy consumption

As China's economy grows, it appears to have passed the U.S. in terms of total energy consumption.

Back in July 2010, I noted that the International Energy Agency claimed that China had passed the U.S. in terms of total energy consumed.  That IEA report showed that China used 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent, whereas the U.S. used only 2.170 billion tons of oil equivalent.

Now, another observer (and key energy player) has confirmed China's leap to being the top energy consumer.  BP’s 60th annual Statistical Review of World Energy corroborates the IEA's findings, placing China in the top consumer slot as of 2010.  According to BP, China consumed 20.3% of total global energy demand last year.  This beats the U.S., which BP reports consumed 19% of the total global energy demand for 2010.

This reverses the trend for more than the past 100 years, when the United States has been considered to consume more energy than any other country. While energy consumption has traditionally been viewed as directly correlated to GDP, this shift breaks that trend as well. Commentators point to China's increased industrial activity, particularly significant in light of the current state of the American economy.

Interestingly, American energy intensity remains high: the average U.S. citizen uses five times as much energy as does the average Chinese citizen. What will happen when China reaches the energy intensity of the U.S.?

October 12, 2010 - New England sets record energy use; wind

What do you think sits at the end of this rainbow, seen Friday over the New Meadows River?

New England's regional electric grid operator ISO-NE has announced that the region has set several new records for energy consumption. In July 2010, consumers used 13,385 gigawatt-hours. That just barely beat the previous single-month energy usage of 13,365 GWh, which occurred in July 2006. To explain this high energy usage despite the economic downturn ISO-NE points to the weather: July 2010 was the second-hottest July in New England since 1960. New England also set new heights for peak demand (capacity measured in gigawatts, not energy measured in gigawatt-hours) in May and September 2010.

In wind news: this weekend, while Highland Wind LLC held an open house to promote its wind project in Highland Plantation in Somerset County, Maine, the Friends of the Highland Mountains and other protesters demonstrated their opposition. As originally conceived, the Highland project - backed by former independent Maine Governor Angus King - would entail 48 turbines along the ridgelines of Stewart, Witham and Bald Mountains, plus Briggs and Burnt Hills. The land in question is owned by Bayroot LLC, and has been managed by Wagner Forest Management. Among the protesters' complaints is the proximity of the project to the Bigelow Mountains and the Appalachian Trail.


Google has already made the news for its involvement in energy markets. Now Google is investing in the underwater transmission lines needed to transmit power from offshore wind turbines to the mainland. Specifically, Google is eyeing a 350-mile line from Virginia to New Jersey.