ISO-NE files info on 2022-2023 capacity market auction

This week the operator of New England's wholesale electricity markets made a series of filings with its federal regulator providing information on its upcoming thirteenth forward capacity auction, through which electric generators may commit to providing electric capacity during the period from June 1, 2022 through May 31, 2023.

ISO New England Inc. is the independent system operator and wholesale market-maker for most of New England's electricity grid. It is a private, not-for-profit entity, which operates pursuant to a tariff on file with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. As part of its planning for system operations, ISO-NE operates a forward capacity market through which it conducts annual auctions through which qualified generators and other resources may bid to obtain commitments to provide capacity in a future year, in exchange for which resources will be compensated. The next primary auction for capacity supply obligations will be Forward Capacity Auction 13 (or FCA 13), which will be held beginning on February 4, 2019, and will cover the 2022-2023 capacity commitment period.

In advance of each primary auction, ISO-NE calculates an "Installed Capacity Requirement," which it defines as a measure of the installed resources that are projected to be necessary to meet reliability standards in light of total forecasted load requirements for the New England Control Area and to maintain sufficient reserve capacity to meet reliability standards. In computing the Installed Capacity Requirement, the grid operator considers parameters and assumptions including load forecast, resource capacity ratings, and resource availability. It also considers what relief can be obtained during a capacity deficiency through measures including emergency assistance (tie benefits) from neighboring interconnected regions (New Brunswick, New York, and Quebec), load reduction by reducing system voltage by 5%, and running the system at a minimal level of operating reserve.
 
In its November 6 Installed Capacity Requirement filing, the grid operator told the Commission that it proposed a installed capacity requirement for FCA 13 of 33,750 megawatts, after taking into account 969 megawatts of credits over interconnection with Canadian utility Hydro-Quebec.

In a parallel Informational Filing for qualification in FCA 13, the grid operator noted that 31,432 megawatts of existing generating capacity resources qualified for the 2022-2023 capacity commitment period, as did 80 megawatts of existing import capacity resources, and 3,413 megawatts of existing demand capacity resources, totaling 34,925 megawatts of existing capacity. Some resources submitted bids to retire, and 3,223 megawatts of resources submitted bids to withdraw in part or in whole from the auction if it clears below a defined price. Additionally, ISO-NE qualified 238 new capacity resources, totaling 8,716 megawatts.

ISO-NE will conduct its thirteenth forward capacity auction starting on February 4, 2019.

Canada's Supreme Court rules for Quebec utility over energy contract

Canada's highest court has ruled that Quebec's provincial utility Hydro-Quebec cannot be required to renegotiate a long-term contract to buy power from a Labrador hydroelectric plant at below-market rates, even though the deal has yielded about 14 times more profit for Hydro-Quebec than for the Labrador generator.

At issue is the Churchill Falls hydroelectric plant on the upper Churchill River in Labrador, and a 1969 agreement between Hydro-Quebec and Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation Limited -- a company jointly owned by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Quebec. The Churchill Falls plant can generate 5,428 megawatts of power, and is one of the world's largest hydroelectric power stations.

According to former Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador Brian Tobin, during pre-construction negotiations, Hydro-Quebec told Churchill Falls that it would not allow the Labrador generator to "wheel" project power through the Hydro-Quebec grid, nor to build its own power line through Quebec to reach U.S. markets. As a result, under the terms of the 1969 agreement, Hydro-Quebec agreed to buy most of the project's power at the fixed price of $2.50 per megawatt-hour, to guarantee construction cost overruns, and to build transmission lines connecting the generators to markets, enabling the Labrador generator to sell power and to use debt financing to construct the plant. The original contract was set to expire in 2016, but included a renewal clause allowing Hydro-Quebec to extend the contract for an additional 25 years at a fixed price of $2 per megawatt-hour through 2041.

After the contract was signed, changes in the electricity market -- including oil price shocks in the 1970s, a decline in public confidence in nuclear power after a 1979 accident, and the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's 1996 decision to require open access to transmission systems -- meant the contract's purchase price is now well below market prices. Because Hydro-Quebec sells electricity from the plant to third parties at market prices, Hydro-Quebec reaps substantial profits from the deal. For example, Hydro-Quebec reports that the average retail price for residential customers in St. John's, Newfoundland in 2018 is $120.30 per megawatt-hour. Canada's National Energy Board says the 2017 average wholesale prices for electricity imports were over $24 per megawatt-hour, with exports priced even higher at $38.58 per megawatt-hour -- over 19 times higher than the price Hydro-Quebec now pays Churchill Falls during the extended contract term. According to CBC, the contract has yielded about $28 billion in profits to Quebec, but just $2 billion for Newfoundland and Labrador.

Citing legal theories including a general duty of good faith, Nalcor Energy subsidiary Churchill Falls asked Canadian courts to order that the contract be renegotiated and the benefits be reallocated. After lower courts sided with Hydro-Quebec, the generator appealed to the Supreme Court of Canada.

On November 2, the Supreme Court of Canada rendered its judgment in the matter of Churchill Falls (Labrador) v. Hydro-Quebec. The high court found, by a 7 to 1 decision, for Hydro-Quebec, noting that the parties "bound themselves knowing full well what they were doing" and that Hydro-Quebec could insist on adhering to the contract despite the "unforeseen" increase in the power's market value.

The one dissenting judge characterized the contract as "relational" in nature, and thus said that both parties are subject to a duty of cooperation which Hydro-Quebec breached by failing to renegotiate and to more fully share the benefits of higher-than-expected market prices. He said that because "a profit imbalance of this nature and magnitude is beyond what the parties intended when they concluded the agreement", the parties had an implied obligation to cooperate in establishing a mechanism for the allocation of "extraordinary profits."

Energy East pipeline case suspended

The developed of a proposed C$15.75 billion Canadian oil pipeline has asked Canadian regulators to temporarily suspend their review of the project, following the regulator's decision to consider the project's indirect greenhouse gas emissions and other factors as part of its environmental review.

At issue are the proposed Energy East Pipeline and the related Eastern Maineline Project, proposed by affiliates of TransCanada Corp. to transport "about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the refineries of Eastern Canada and a marine terminal in New Brunswick" and to ensure natural gas supply to utilities in Ontario and Quebec.  In 2014, the developed applied to Canada's National Energy Board for approvals required for the 4,500-kilometer project's development.

That case remains pending, but a recent decision about the scope of environmental review has prompted the developer to ask for a temporary pause of the case. On August 23, 2017, the National Energy Board released its final decision establishing a List of Issues and Environmental Assessment Factors to be considered in its review of the projects.  The factors set for consideration include greenhouse gas emissions.  While the Board's environmental factors typically include only direct greenhouse gas emissions -- those emitted by the project itself -- including indirect emissions -- in this case the Board decided to include indirect greenhouse gas emissions as well:

Given increasing public interest in GHG emissions, together with increasing governmental actions and commitments (including the federal government’s stated interest in assessing upstream GHG emissions associated with major pipelines), the Board is of the view that it should also consider indirect GHG emissions in its NEB Act public interest determination for each of the Projects.

On September 7, the applicants filed a letter requesting a 30-day suspension of the Board's review process to give applicants time to "review the Decision, the resulting implications to the Projects, and the respective Project applications."  The next day, the Board issued a ruling that it "will not issue further decisions or take further process steps relating to the review of the Projects until 8 October 2017."

The case remains suspended until that time. 

Energy in Maine's 2016 State of the State

Maine Governor Paul LePage has released his 2016 State of the State remarks in the form of a letter to the state legislature.  Among his top priorities detailed in the letter is addressing the high cost of electricity in the manufacturing and industrial sectors.  The eight-page letter also focuses on themes including welfare reform, lowering the income tax, reducing student debt and attracting youth, and fighting the drug crisis.

Energy issues appear in Governor LePage's letter as a focus for -- or obstacle to -- economic development.  In the letter, he repeats his position that "Maine's electricity prices are not competitive."  The letter criticizes legislative mandates supporting "long-term contracts for above-market rates" as adding $38 million in ratepayer costs.

The letter also addresses Maine's renewable energy policy, calling for support for Maine's biomass energy industry while criticizing the economics of wind and solar energy projects:

Socialists love to subsidize new wind and solar energy projects because they think it will save the earth, but that kind of expensive and inefficient energy benefits only a few wealthy investors, and our electrical generation is already one of the cleanest in the country. Instead, let's support the existing Maine-based biomass infrastructure that is already in place to take advantage of our plentiful natural resource: wood.

Indeed, references to socialism and socialists appear twelve times throughout Governor LePage's 2016 State of the State letter.  (A reference to Senator Bernie Sanders' candidacy for President?)

In his letter, Governor LePage also called for expansion of linear infrastructure like natural gas pipelines into New England and electric transmission lines to hydropower resources in Canada:

Meanwhile, my Administration continues to make progress working with other New England states to expand hydropower and natural gas into our region. Right now there is construction underway to expand our pipelines into New England, and clean and affordable hydropower is right next door in Quebec. It's time to switch off expensive energy. We must plug into the affordable reserves of nearby natural gas and hydropower. We must be willing to transmit hydropower to the states south of us.

These themes of energy infrastructure investment echo those playing out elsewhere in the Northeast U.S., as states explore expanded connections to natural gas from the Marcellus shale and Canadian hydropower.

Northern Pass files with NH SEC

The developer of the Northern Pass Transmission Project, a proposed high-voltage transmission line from Canada into New Hampshire, filed a formal application to New Hampshire regulators this week.

First proposed in 2009, the Northern Pass project would include about 190 miles of new direct current transmission lines and an AC-DC converter station.  Collectively, the project would be capable of importing over 1,000 megawatts of power from Canada into the New England electric grid.  Its formal sponsors are two companies affiliated under the Eversource family: Northern Pass Transmission LLC and Public Service Company of New Hampshire d/b/a Eversource Energy.

Early versions of proposal drew criticism and controversy over issues including siting, visual impacts, the potential use of eminent domain, and impacts to domestic renewable energy production.  After a series of public information meetings and other dialogue, Eversource released a revised route and plan in August 2015.

On October 19, Eversource announced that it had filed a formal application to the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee.  The Northern Pass Transmission application to the SEC is available on the project's website.  It describes a project cost estimate of $1.6 billion, and a capacity of 1,090 megawatts. 

The SEC was established by the state legislature for the review, approval, monitoring and enforcement of compliance in the planning, siting, construction and operation of energy facilities.  It includes members from the Public Utilities Commission, cabinet level commissioners, and two members of the public.  The SEC has jurisdiction to review applications for siting and construction of large-scale energy facilities and to issue a Certificate of Site and Facility enabling a project's development.  The process before the SEC is likely to play out through 2016.

Northern Pass proposes new transmission plan

The developer of a proposed $1.4 billion electric transmission line connecting Quebec to New Hampshire has released a revised route for the project, following public opposition to earlier plans.  The new vision for the Northern Pass project would bury more of the line underground and reduce the project's overall capacity to haul power.  Will this version of the Northern Pass gain more traction?

First proposed in 2009, the Northern Pass would be a 192-mile high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line.  It would bring up to 1,000 megawatts of power from Canadian power plants into New England, running from the Canadian border to a proposed converter terminal in Franklin, New Hampshire.  From there, a new alternating current (AC) transmission line would deliver the energy to New England’s electric grid at an existing substation in Deerfield, New Hampshire. 

Since it was first proposed, the Northern Pass route has drawn criticism; the project was delayed, and despite revisions to the route public opposition remained.  Throughout the process, many comments have focused on local siting impacts, like the effect of above-ground transmission lines and poles through Franconia Notch State Park, the White Mountain National Forest, and the Appalachian Trail.  Eversource proposed running 8 miles of cable underground to reduce these impacts, but argued that undergrounding more would make the project too expensive.

But the forces motivating the Northern Pass project and other proposed HVDC lines from Canada remain strong: demand in New England and New York for electricity, and in particular for hydropower and other renewable electricity imported from Canada.

On August 18, project lead Eversource Energy announced changes to the route and scope of the project.  While the previous vision included 8 miles of underground cable to avoid visual impacts, the so-called "Forward New Hampshire Plan" now includes 60 miles of underground cable. Eversource described its revised route as striking "a balance between New Hampshire and our region’s need for a reliable new energy source and avoiding potential impacts to the state’s scenic landscapes."  At the same time, the revised proposal reduces the line's capacity from 1,200 megawatts to 1,000 megawatts, ostensibly to hold total costs at the previously estimated $1.4 billion.  The plan now includes $200 million to establish the "Forward NH Fund", a pool of money designed to support clean energy innovations, economic development, community investment, and tourism.

The Northern Pass project now faces public hearings.  Eversource is expected to file an application for site review with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee in mid-October.

Canada's Energy East Pipeline Project

A subsidiary of Canadian energy company TransCanada has proposed a crude oil pipeline running 4,600 kilometers from Alberta and Saskatchewan to Saint John, New Brunswick.  The proposed Energy East Pipeline Project would enable Western Canadian crude oil to be shipped east across six Canadian provinces, expanding economic opportunities for refining and export -- but like other major pipeline projects, the Energy East project faces regulatory hurdles.

On March 4, 2014, Energy East Pipeline Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of TransCanada Oil Pipelines (Canada) Ltd., proposed the project which entails the conversion of about 3,000 kilometers of existing natural gas pipeline to an oil transportation pipeline, new pipelines in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick, and marine facilities that enable access to other markets by ship.  If built, the $12 billion project could carry up to 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day.

The major motivation behind the line is the relative surplus of Western Canadian crude oil, including fuel produced from the Alberta oil sands.  While Alberta and Saskatchewan produce substantial oil, relatively little capacity to ship that crude to refineries means relatively low prices for producers.  Meanwhile, refineries in Quebec and Atlantic Canada currently receive 86% of their crude oil from foreign sources.  TransCanada pitches the Energy East project as giving these Eastern Canadian refiners access to "reliable, low-cost Western Canadian crude."  The developer also points to positive economic development impacts, including about 10,000 jobs and an estimated $35 billion added to Canada’s gross domestic product over 40 years, as well as the relative safety of shipping oil by pipeline as opposed to by rail or truck.  Notably, the project also allows TransCanada to make better use of its existing natural gas pipeline system, which has excess unused capacity.

Like the Keystone XL pipeline in the U.S., the Energy East project faces opposition from both local siting concerns and global worries about the environmental impacts of "tar sands" crude production.  Some have also expressed concerns that the project would disrupt natural gas flows to Canadian consumers, although TransCanada has said that it has plans to build more lines to meet any increased demand.

Under Canadian law, interprovincial pipelines are federally regulated by Canada's National Energy Board (NEB).  According to its website, TransCanada expects final regulatory approval in the fourth quarter of 2015, with the project commissioned and placed in service in 2018.  How the regulatory process plays out will affect when -- and whether -- the Energy East pipeline project moves forward.

Feds approve Quebec-to-NY power line

A proposed electric transmission line connecting Quebec to New York will receive a key federal approval, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.  The Energy Department's decision to issue a Presidential permit to Champlain Hudson Power Express, Inc. focuses attention on the nation's international trade in electricity, and may suggest increased reliance on power imports.

Pursuant to two Executive Orders -- EO 10485 (September 9, 1953), as amended by EO 12038 (February 7, 1978) -- no electricity transmission facilities may be constructed, operated, maintained, or connected at the U.S. border without first obtaining a Presidential permit from the Department of Energy.  In 2010, Champlain Hudson Power Express, Inc. applied to DOE for a Presidential permit to construct, operate, maintain, and connect a 1,000-megawatt (MW), high-voltage direct current (HVDC) merchant electric power transmission system across the U.S./Canada border.

As currently envisioned, the Champlain Hudson Power Express project would cross the U.S./Canada border near the town of Champlain in northeastern New York State.  From there, the line would extend southward about 336 miles to the Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. Rainey substation in Queens, New York.  Notably, the aquatic portions of the transmission line would primarily be buried in sediments of Lake Champlain and the Hudson, Harlem, and East rivers, while the terrestrial portions of the line would be buried within existing roadway and railroad rights-of-way.

The Department may issue or amend a permit if it determines that the permit is in the public interest and after obtaining favorable recommendations from the U.S. Departments of State and Defense.  In making this determination, DOE considers factors including the proposed project's potential impacts on the environment and electricity reliability.

In the case of the Champlain Hudson Power Express, the Department of Energy's record of decision states that its decision to grant the Presidential permit was based on "consideration of the potential environmental impacts, impacts on the reliability of the U.S. electric power supply system under normal and contingency conditions, and the favorable recommendations of the U.S. Departments of State and Defense."  With the Presidential permit in hand, the project developer will be one step closer to success -- but additional steps remain, including both securing regulatory approvals and completing the commercial arrangements necessary for project development.

If the project is built, New York consumers may soon have increased access to electricity generated from Canadian hydropower and other resources across their northern border.  Will the U.S. soon import more power from Canada?  If so, how much, and at what cost?  How will market forces and regulatory agendas combine to affect Canadian exports of electricity to the U.S.?

New England Clean Power Link proposed

A developer of electric transmission lines has proposed a new line that would connect New England to Quebec.  The so-called New England Clean Power Link would run about 150 miles from the U.S.-Canadian border to Ludlow, Vermont.  While the line shares some features with other proposed ties to the Canadian power grid -- including its development team -- the New England Clean Power Link differs from prior proposals in several regards.

Demand for electricity in the northeastern United States, and in particular for renewable power, has led to interest in developing several transmission lines to Canada.  Provincial crown corporation Hydro-Quebec has many large hydroelectric dams, and continues to develop Quebec's rivers for power production.  Meanwhile, Newfoundland utility Nalcor is developing gigawatt-scale hydropower on the Churchill River in Labrador, with aims to export the power to eastern Canada and the U.S.

This relative surplus of Canadian hydropower has led developers to propose transmission lines connecting Quebec resources to New England consumers.  These lines include the Champlain-Hudson Power Express from Canada to New York City, and the Northern Pass from Canada into New Hampshire.

The $1.2 billion Clean Power Link would have a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, roughly equal to the size of a nuclear power plant.  Like previous proposals, the newly-proposed line is motivated by the perceived opportunity to sell Canadian power in New England.  The Clean Power Link also shares features in common with other proposals, in that it would be a high-voltage direct current or HVDC line.  Notably, it would also be developed and financed by TDI New England, a Blackstone Group subsidiary led by the team behind the Champlain-Hudson Power Express.

Like that line, it would run about 100 miles under Vermont's Lake Champlain.  South of the lake, the Clean Power Link proposal features lines buried underground.  This contrasts with the Northern Pass, whose traditional wires-on-towers architecture has drawn significant opposition in New Hampshire.

The Clean Power Link faces a regulatory process including environmental and energy permitting, and is also dependent on the market forces that motivated its proposal.  It is unclear whether any of the proposed transmission lines to Canada will actually be built, let alone which one.  For now, TDI aims to build the line and place it in service by 2019.

Vermont, Quebec announce electric vehicle corridor

Will a newly announced electric vehicle charging corridor in Vermont and Quebec lead to more electric vehicles in the region?

Solar panels on the roof of the Farm Barn at Shelburne Farms, in Shelburne, Vermont.

Electric vehicles are receiving increased interest, as drivers and policymakers look for ways to reduce the use of gasoline in the transportation sector.  For pure plug-in cars, the vehicle's range and the logistics of recharging the vehicle's battery are critically important.  Electric vehicle manufacturers try to address range anxiety through technological advances, while policymakers focus on ensuring that drivers have access to conveniently-spaced recharging infrastructure.

Today Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin and Quebec Premier Pauline Marois unveiled the first sites of the Vermont-Québec Electric Charging Corridor.  The 138-mile corridor will eventually connect Burlington, Vermont to Montreal, Quebec, using existing highways including I-89 and Canadian routes A-10, 104 and 133.  The plan calls for over the development of over 20 charging stations along the way.  Some stations are already in place, including charging stations in Sharon, Montpelier, South Burlington and Waterbury.

How quickly charging stations can recharge batteries depends on the technology used.  According to the U.S. Department of Energy's Plug-In Electric Vehicle Handbook, light-duty vehicle charging stations can be broken into three categories.  Level 1 stations offer 2 to 5 miles of added driving range per hour of charging.  Level 2 stations provide 10 to 20 miles of added range per hour of charge.  Much more expensive Level 3 or "DC fast charging" stations can add 60 to 80 miles of range in 20 minutes of charging.

Level 2 stations are proposed for the Vermont-Quebec corridor.  These stations will allow electric vehicle drivers to top off their batteries at the stations, and possibly to fully recharge their batteries overnight.  While the charge rate is still significantly slower than refilling a conventional vehicle's tank with gasoline, Vermont and Quebec hope that the cost and environmental benefits of electric vehicles will drive their greater adoption.

Linking North American carbon markets

As nations, states, and provinces establish carbon markets, there is considerable interest in establishing links between these markets.  Two of North America's leading carbon markets - one overseen by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the other by the Canadian province of Quebec - appear to be on track to link their cap-and-trade systems by January 1, 2014.

A 2006 California law known as AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act, established a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program.  The program covers major sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the California, including refineries, power plants, industrial facilities, and transportation fuels.  CARB established regulations which set an enforceable greenhouse gas emissions cap.  This cap will decline over time.  The law requires covered entities to acquire allowances issued by CARB to cover their carbon emissions.  These allowances are tradeable permits allowing the holder to emit a given amount of carbon dioxide or its equivalent.

Quebec joined the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) in April 2008, a group of American states and Canadian provinces that have decided to adopt a common approach toward addressing climate change.  WCI's goals include the creation of a North American market for trading carbon emission rights.  Each WCI member government first creates its own greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade system, then links to others through intergovernmental recognition agreements.

California and Quebec's programs are now in the process of linking up.  According to a recently-issued CARB document, California and Quebec have been working together to ensure that both systems' operations are compatible and will work together and without disruption to California-covered entities.

According to the notice, linkage between California and Quebec will need to be effective as of January 1, 2014.  In the interim, California and Quebec will hold a practice joint auction to test their auction platform, allow market participants to gain familiarity with the future procedures for a linked market, and to allow the jurisdictions to evaluate their readiness for the newly expanded market. 

This linkage would not directly affect other North American carbon markets, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or RGGI market.  RGGI represents an agreement by nine northeastern states to create a pooled carbon market.  Other jurisdictions could join the RGGI market, and it is possible that the RGGI market could one day merge with the CARB and Quebec markets to form a broader North American carbon market.  The linkage of the California and Quebec programs may serve as a test of the effectiveness of linking the various North American carbon markets.

March 31, 2011 - Canada backs Lower Churchill hydro project

The Canadian federal government has just announced that it will support the Lower Churchill hydroelectric project in Labrador.  The $6.2 billion project has been in the planning phases for years, but now appears to be moving forward.

Rich in natural resources, Canada is home to a great number of rivers with significant hydropower potential.  Many of these rivers have been dammed and developed in the past century; second only to China, Canada is now a leading producer of hydropower in the world.  In recent years, Canada has been one of the few countries to produce a majority of its electricity from hydropower, with some provinces like Quebec, Manitoba, and Labrador producing over 90% of their electricity from hydro dams.

Since 1971, much of the Churchill River's flow has been diverted into the Churchill Falls hydroelectric station.  At 5,428 MW, the existing Churchill Falls project has the second largest capacity of any power station in North America.  The Lower Churchill project entails building two new plants (Gull Island and Muskrat Falls) with a combined capacity of over 3,074 MW.

It remains to be seen what form the support of the Canadian federal government will take.