More solar faster, predicts New England grid operator

New England will likely see even more solar photovoltaic energy projects over the next decade than was previously projected, according to the latest draft forecast by the operator of New England's electric grid.

Solar photovoltaic panels on the roof of a Massachusetts home.

To help plan for future needs, grid operator ISO New England, Inc. is developing an updated forecast of solar photovoltaic project development in New England.  In 2014, ISO New England developed its first multistate forecast of PV capacity growth.  It based its 2014 PV forecast heavily on development goals articulated as policies in the six New England states.

ISO New England is now updating that forecast for 2015.  Its draft 2015 Solar PV Forecast, released on February 27, notes that PV development is happening more rapidly than was previously projected.  Using updated historical data, it acknowledges that through 2014, 40% more solar capacity was developed in the region than it previously estimated.  As a result of this faster-than-expected growth, the draft now predicts a higher level of cumulative photovoltaic project development through 2023.

Perhaps more significantly for the solar boom, ISO-NE's draft 2015 forecast also frontloads more new project capacity into 2015 and 2016, while decreasing the amount predicted to be newly developed in later years.  While last year's forecast also predicts more incremental solar capacity will be developed in each of the next three years than in later years, the frontloading is more prominent in the draft 2015 forecast.

The draft 2015 forecast projects that 2,138.8 megawatts of solar photovoltaic projects will be developed in New England by 2024.  This capacity is stated as an alternating current nameplate rating, even though photovoltaic cells essentially generate direct current electricity.  The study derates direct current capacity to alternating current with an 83% array-to-inverter ratio, so this implies an even higher number of megawatts if stated as direct current capacity, as most solar projects are described.

The draft 2015 forecast projects that these solar photovoltaic projects will give rise to a summer seasonal claimed capability of 748.6 megawatts.

ISO New England did not include in its draft 2015 PV forecast any update to its forecast of how much energy these projects would produce.  Instead it suggests that it must first finalize its forecast of installed photovoltaic capacity, and can then estimate the energy production associated with the forecast.  The report does repeat 2014's forecast of energy as illustrative, keeping in mind that actual amounts of energy generated from solar photovoltaic capacity in New England will likely be higher if capacity forecasts are revised upward as is proposed in this draft.

The 2015 draft PV report is now under review by ISO New England's Distributed Generation Forecast Working Group.  That group next meets on April 14, where the final draft forecast will be presented.

Vermont, Quebec announce electric vehicle corridor

Will a newly announced electric vehicle charging corridor in Vermont and Quebec lead to more electric vehicles in the region?

Solar panels on the roof of the Farm Barn at Shelburne Farms, in Shelburne, Vermont.

Electric vehicles are receiving increased interest, as drivers and policymakers look for ways to reduce the use of gasoline in the transportation sector.  For pure plug-in cars, the vehicle's range and the logistics of recharging the vehicle's battery are critically important.  Electric vehicle manufacturers try to address range anxiety through technological advances, while policymakers focus on ensuring that drivers have access to conveniently-spaced recharging infrastructure.

Today Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin and Quebec Premier Pauline Marois unveiled the first sites of the Vermont-Québec Electric Charging Corridor.  The 138-mile corridor will eventually connect Burlington, Vermont to Montreal, Quebec, using existing highways including I-89 and Canadian routes A-10, 104 and 133.  The plan calls for over the development of over 20 charging stations along the way.  Some stations are already in place, including charging stations in Sharon, Montpelier, South Burlington and Waterbury.

How quickly charging stations can recharge batteries depends on the technology used.  According to the U.S. Department of Energy's Plug-In Electric Vehicle Handbook, light-duty vehicle charging stations can be broken into three categories.  Level 1 stations offer 2 to 5 miles of added driving range per hour of charging.  Level 2 stations provide 10 to 20 miles of added range per hour of charge.  Much more expensive Level 3 or "DC fast charging" stations can add 60 to 80 miles of range in 20 minutes of charging.

Level 2 stations are proposed for the Vermont-Quebec corridor.  These stations will allow electric vehicle drivers to top off their batteries at the stations, and possibly to fully recharge their batteries overnight.  While the charge rate is still significantly slower than refilling a conventional vehicle's tank with gasoline, Vermont and Quebec hope that the cost and environmental benefits of electric vehicles will drive their greater adoption.

Champlain Hudson Power Express debated

As policymakers seek to secure energy supplies for the future, how far abroad should they cast their nets?  In addition to cost, reliability, and energy mix goals like renewable electricity standards, should decisions be made based on other factors such as local economic development?

New York legislators debated these questions yesterday in hearings over a proposed transmission line that would connect New York City to Canadian hydroelectric generation.  The $2.2 billion high-voltage direct current line, known as the Champlain Hudson Power Express, would run from the U.S.-Canadian border to the New York metro area. The line would run underwater through Lake Champlain, the Hudson River, and East River for much of its route, with the remainder of the line buried underground.

The Champlain Hudson Power Express was first proposed in 2010, and has been the subject of controversy.  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has launched the N.Y. Energy Highway program, a public-private initiative to upgrade and modernize New York State’s energy system.  The Champlain Hudson Power Express's developer, Blackstone Group, L.P. subsidiary Transmission Developers Inc., is promoting the line as part of that solution.  It would connect over 1,000 megawatts of Canadian generation - primarily Hydro-Quebec's hydropower projects, as well as some wind - to power-hungry consumers in the New York City area.

Some stakeholders question the effects of the line on existing and new generation in New York.  Older domestic power plants may be unable to compete with the Canadian power; if imports are priced just below what domestic generation needs to operate, the result could be a loss of jobs and tax revenues without significant consumer savings.  Stakeholders such as the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 97, representing more than 4,000 workers in electric generation and utility jobs in New York, have publicly opposed the project on these grounds, while calling for growth of domestic generation projects.

The Canadian power might also compete with existing and proposed indigenous renewable power projects.  New York has adopted a renewable portfolio standard of obtaining 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2015.  New York currently excludes large-scale hydropower projects from qualification for its RPS, but Canadian imports could dampen market demand for in-state renewable generation.

The Champlain Hudson Power Express reportedly featured prominently in a public hearing held yesterday by the New York Senate Standing Committee on Energy and Telecommunications to "consider and analyze the long-term base load energy generation and transmission needs of the State of New York".  Debate over the proposed line is likely to continue, with economics and regulation likely to play key roles in its fate.