Federal tax credits drive renewable power, CO2 reduction

A report by the U.S. Energy Department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory found that recent extensions to tax credits for wind and solar energy will drive a net peak increase of 48-53 gigawatts in installed renewable generation capacity in the early 2020s.

NREL is the U.S. Department of Energy's primary national laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development.  NREL is operated for the Energy Department by The Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

In its February 2016 report, Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions, NREL examined the potential impact of recently extended federal tax credits on the deployment of renewable generation technologies and related U.S. electric sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.

At issue are federal tax credits for renewable energy: the wind production tax credit (PTC) and the solar investment tax credit (ITC).  Congress acted in December 2015 to extend by 5 years the expiration dates for these tax credits, with a phaseout or ramp down of tax credit value over time.

The NREL study examined two key questions, under models with high and low natural gas prices:

1.  How might renewable energy deployment in the contiguous United States change with these recent federal tax credit extensions?
2. How might this change in renewable energy deployment impact CO₂ emissions in the power sector?

Under both sets of natural gas assumptions, the NREL study found that tax credit extension scenarios show greater renewable technology investments through the early 2020s than scenarios without extensions:

The study found that scenarios with tax credit extensions also show lower CO2 emissions from the U.S. electricity system:

Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1,400 million metric tons CO₂.

In all scenarios, nearly all of the estimated growth in renewable energy capacity was primarily comprised of new solar and wind capacity, as opposed to biopower, geothermal, or hydropower technologies.

The NREL study concludes that tax credit extensions can have a "measurable impact" on future renewable energy deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price assumptions.

Renewables dominate new electric generating capacity

In September 2012, the United States added 433 megawatts of new utility-scale electric generating capacity - and according to a federal report, it all came from renewable resources.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's September 2012 energy infrastructure update provides a summary of recent developments of natural gas, hydropower, electric generation, and electric transmission facilities.  For electric generation, the report provides a breakdown of newly installed capacity by resource type.

According to the report, 5 wind projects came online in September, totaling 300 megawatts of capacity:

• EDF Group’s 140 MW Phase 1 Pacific Wind in Kern County, California
• Forsyth Street Advisor LLC’s 57.6 MW Phase 1 Horse Butt Wind Farm in Bonneville County, Idaho
• KODE Novus I LLC’s 80 MW Phase 1 Novus Wind Farm in Texas County, Oklahoma
• Fire Island Wind LLC’s 17.6 MW Phase 1 Fire Island Wind Project in Anchorage Borough, Alaska
• Kodiak Electric Association’s 4.5 MW Phase 2 Pillar Mountain Wind project expansion in Kodiak Island Borough, Alaska

Additionally, 18 solar projects came online in September, totaling 133 MW of capacity.  Among these are a number of projects earning "largest" ranks:

• NRG Energy & MidAmerican Renewables, LLC’s 50 MW Phase 5 Aqua Caliente Solar Project expansion in Yuma County, Arizona came online.  The expansion brings the Aqua Caliente Project's operational photovoltaic capacity to 250 MW, making it currently the largest photovoltaic facility in the country.
• Zongyi Solar America’s 20 MW Tinton Falls Solar in Monmouth County, New Jersey, the largest photovoltaic project in New Jersey
• Southern Sky Renewable Energy LLC’s 5.6 MW Canton Landfill Solar Project in Canton County, Massachusetts, the largest solar facility in New England

The report indicates that no fossil fuel-fired generation came online last month.  The growth in renewable energy may be due to a variety of factors, including a rush to get wind projects built before the federal production tax credit expires at the end of the year, state renewable portfolio standards, and future projections about the cost of traditional fuels.  Nevertheless, wind and solar remain relatively small players in the nation's energy mix, with 4.43% of the nation's total generating capacity coming from wind and only 0.29% coming from solar.  Still, the growth of these resources illustrates recent investment's focus on the renewable power sector.

Incremental hydropower tax incentives

Upgrading existing hydroelectric facilities to improve their efficiency or capacity can be cost-effective.  Not only will the plant produce more electricity more efficiently, but the upgrades may qualify the facility for a tax incentive designed to spur the development of new renewable electricity generation.  For example, installing inflatable flashboards or high-efficiency turbine runners could qualify a project for an energy production tax credit of 1.1¢/kWh. 

As part of the sweeping Energy Policy Act of 2005, Congress amended section 45 of the Internal Revenue Code to expand the renewable electricity production tax credit (or PTC) to incremental production gains from efficiency improvements or capacity additions to existing hydroelectric facilities.  Eligible improvements must be placed in service after August 8, 2005, and before January 1, 2014. 

To qualify incremental hydroelectric generation for the tax credit, the project owner applies to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under section 1301(c).  The Commission is required to certify the “historic average annual hydropower production” and the “percentage of average annual hydropower production at the facility attributable to the efficiency improvements or additions of capacity” placed in service during that time period.  The applicant is then able to take the production tax credit for the incremental amount of electric energy produced as a result of the upgrades.

While a credit of 1.1¢/kWh may seem small, hydroelectric projects typically produce relatively large amounts of electric energy at a relatively low operating cost.  Depending on the energy market, at times the tax credit may be worth half as much as the value of the underlying energy.  Also, in this context, the tax credit is only available for the incremental generation produced above the historic baseline; thus allowing incremental hydropower production to qualify for the PTC arguably rewards investment in upgrades.

At the same time, the continued availability of the tax credit for any kind of renewable electricity is in doubt.  Under current law, most renewable resources must be placed in service by the end of 2013 to qualify for the production tax credit.  Wind energy projects must be placed in service by the end of 2012.  Congress is considering whether to renew the tax credit, as it has done a number of times since it was first enacted in 1992.   According to a Congressional Budget Office report released this month, tax credits for renewable energy sources cost the government $1.4 billion in fiscal year 2011.

Obama: renewable energy tax credit reforms

President Obama's proposal to reform the way the U.S. taxes businesses includes making the soon-to-lapse production tax credit (PTC) for generating renewable electricity both permanent and refundable.  If enacted, this proposal would support the renewable energy industry, but could lead to a change the way projects are financed.

Earlier this month, the President and the Department of the Treasury issued a joint report entitled, "The President's Framework for Business Tax Reform" (25-page PDF).  The report presents a plan to reform America’s system of business taxation.  It labels the U.S. tax system "uncompetitive and inefficient", noting that the U.S. has a relatively narrow corporate tax base further reduced by loopholes, tax expenditures, and tax planning, and that the nation has a high statutory tax rate.

The cure proposed in the report is presented as supporting the "competitiveness of American businesses and increasing incentives to invest and hire in the United States by lowering rates, cutting tax expenditures, and reducing complexity, while being fiscally responsible."  It offers five key elements of business tax reform:

• Eliminate dozens of tax loopholes and subsidies, broaden the base and cut the corporate tax rate to spur growth in America
• Strengthen American manufacturing and innovation
• Strengthen the international tax system, including establishing a new minimum tax on foreign earnings, to encourage domestic investment
• Simplify and cut taxes for America’s small businesses
• Restore fiscal responsibility and not add a dime to the deficit

Each of these elements is treated in some depth in the report.  In the section presenting the President's "Framework for Reform" for the second element, strengthening manufacturing, the report says that the Framework would "[e]xtend, consolidate, and enhance key tax incentives to encourage investment in clean energy":

The President’s Framework would make permanent the tax credit for the production of renewable electricity, in order to provide a strong, consistent incentive to encourage investments in renewable energy technologies like wind and solar. As with the R&E Tax Credit, the United States has to date provided only a temporary production tax credit for renewable electricity generation. This approach has created an uncertain investment climate, undermined the effectiveness of our tax expenditures, and hindered the development of a clean energy sector in the United States. In addition, the structure of renewable production and investment tax credits has required many firms to invest in inefficient tax planning through tax equity structures so that they can benefit even when they do not have tax liability in a given year because of a lack of taxable income. The President’s Framework would address this issue by making the permanent production tax credit refundable. 

Several features of this proposal are worth noting.  First, the production tax credit would become permanent.  To date, the PTC has been enacted, expired, and re-enacted multiple times, although occasionally with breaks in between periods of eligibility.  The PTC soon faces expiration yet again.  Renewable energy developers say that the uncertainty over its future significantly chills interest and development in the renewable sector.  President Obama's plan to make the tax credit permanent would be a positive improvement from their perspective because it represents a longer-term commitment to stable tax treatment.  From the national perspective, this longer-term commitment may spur investment and jobs, although it faces challenge from those who do not believe permanent tax credits should be ever used to support renewable energy, let alone permanently.

Second, the PTC would be refundable.  This roughly means that if you qualify for the credit, you don't need any taxable income to be able to use the credit as an offset against tax liability; when a tax credit is refundable, you can often receive its value in the form of a check from the Treasury.  The non-refundable nature of the PTC and the related investment tax credit (ITC) at present has led to business structures that allow multiple entities to invest in a project while allocating specific tax benefits to those investors capable of using them.  According to the report, the result of the widespread use of these tax equity structures has been investment in inefficient tax planning.  President Obama's plan would eliminate one of the key reasons behind the tax equity structure commonly used today, and could change the scope of developers interested in proposing renewable energy projects.  For example, a developer with low or no U.S. tax liability would be able to reap the tax incentive without partnering with income-rich tax equity investors.  Tax equity structures may still have value even if this proposal passed, but it could lead to a change in the way renewable energy projects are financed.

The President's tax reform plan has yet to be fully reviewed by Congress, and many observers believe it nearly impossible that it would pass as currently conceived.  The renewable energy tax incentives at issue here may or may not be part of a final enacted tax reform plan.  For now, in an election year, this proposal has strengthened the President's alliance with the renewable energy industry, as he has cast himself as their best hope for extended and improved tax credits if reelected.