Energy policy in the 2018 State of the Union

U.S. President Donald Trump delivered the 2018 edition of the State of the Union speech on January 30, 2018. Unlike many previous such addresses, this one barely covered energy policy, focusing instead on a variety of other matters. But the speech offers insight into the Trump administration's view of the national situation, as well as into its priorities.

Energy policy and resources have often featured prominently in previous State of the Union addresses, and in remarks in 2017 President Trump advocated for a national strategy of "energy dominance." By contrast, President Trump's 2018 State of the Union speech mentioned U.S. regulation, production, and trade in energy only briefly, emphasizing his deregulatory agenda and pro-export philosophy.

The Trump administration posted an online version of his 2018 remarks as prepared for delivery. In that version, only two sentences use the word "energy":

We have ended the war on American Energy — and we have ended the war on clean coal.  We are now an exporter of energy to the world.

A transcript released by the U.K. media source The Independent suggests President Trump stuck close to his script on this (and other points):

We have ended the war on American energy, and we have ended the war on beautiful clean coal. We are now very proudly an exporter of energy to the world. 

These statements appear to relate to announcements made over the last year. Back in March 2017, President Trump signed an executive order which he described as "putting an end to the war on coal. We’re going to have clean coal — really clean coal." The U.S. does export a significant amount of energy -- and last year the Energy Information Administration projected that the U.S. would likely become a net exporter of energy within several years "as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise." Subsequent developments over the last year have lent preliminary support to this prediction.

President Trump's 2018 State of the Union speech did not otherwise directly address energy policy. That said, he did emphasize policy goals and achievements with respect to economic factors, such as tax cuts, job creation in manufacturing and other sectors, and improved small business confidence, as well as matters like national defense and immigration.

It can be tempting to infer administrative priorities from what is or isn't covered in a speech like this. At the same time, any leader has limited time to cover a host of important topics. With respect to energy matters, the speech emphasizes the Trump administration's focus on reducing regulations and increasing exports of America-produced energy resources.

Climate and energy in 2016 State of the Union

President Obama delivered his final State of the Union address on January 12, 2016.  The White House has posted his remarks as prepared for delivery to Congress.  Climate change, and related energy and environmental issues, formed a prominent theme in this year's speech.

The White House.

Climate change first surfaced in the 2016 State of the Union as part of one of four "big questions" President Obama posed for the nation.

Second, how do we make technology work for us, and not against us -- especially when it comes to solving urgent challenges like climate change?

After announcing a "moonshot" medical research effort to cure cancer to be led by Vice President Joe Biden, President Obama said, "We need the same level of commitment when it comes to developing clean energy sources."

He then spent several minutes addressing climate change directly.  First, he noted effective consensus that climate change is a topic worth tackling:

Look, if anybody still wants to dispute the science around climate change, have at it. You will be pretty lonely, because you’ll be debating our military, most of America’s business leaders, the majority of the American people, almost the entire scientific community, and 200 nations around the world who agree it’s a problem and intend to solve it.

He then touted the economic and environmental effects of investment in renewable and distributed generation and energy storage:

But even if -- even if the planet wasn’t at stake, even if 2014 wasn’t the warmest year on record -- until 2015 turned out to be even hotter -- why would we want to pass up the chance for American businesses to produce and sell the energy of the future?

Listen, seven years ago, we made the single biggest investment in clean energy in our history. Here are the results. In fields from Iowa to Texas, wind power is now cheaper than dirtier, conventional power. On rooftops from Arizona to New York, solar is saving Americans tens of millions of dollars a year on their energy bills, and employs more Americans than coal -- in jobs that pay better than average. We’re taking steps to give homeowners the freedom to generate and store their own energy -- something, by the way, that environmentalists and Tea Partiers have teamed up to support. And meanwhile, we’ve cut our imports of foreign oil by nearly 60 percent, and cut carbon pollution more than any other country on Earth.

Gas under two bucks a gallon ain’t bad, either.

President Obama then called for changes to transition to clean energy sources:

Now we’ve got to accelerate the transition away from old, dirtier energy sources. Rather than subsidize the past, we should invest in the future -- especially in communities that rely on fossil fuels. We do them no favor when we don't show them where the trends are going. That’s why I’m going to push to change the way we manage our oil and coal resources, so that they better reflect the costs they impose on taxpayers and our planet. And that way, we put money back into those communities, and put tens of thousands of Americans to work building a 21st century transportation system.

Now, none of this is going to happen overnight. And, yes, there are plenty of entrenched interests who want to protect the status quo. But the jobs we’ll create, the money we’ll save, the planet we’ll preserve -- that is the kind of future our kids and our grandkids deserve. And it's within our grasp.

Climate change is just one of many issues where our security is linked to the rest of the world.

His final reference to climate change came while discussing international engagement, and "seeing our foreign assistance as a part of our national security":

When we lead nearly 200 nations to the most ambitious agreement in history to fight climate change, yes, that helps vulnerable countries, but it also protects our kids.

Climate, energy, and environmental issues thus featured prominently in the 2016 State of the Union speech.  Over the coming year, these themes -- domestic and international action on climate change, investment in renewable energy and distributed generation, transition away from oil and coal -- will likely continue to play out at the federal level.

Previewing climate and energy in 2016 State of the Union

President Obama is scheduled to deliver his final State of the Union address tonight. As in previous years, he is likely to address climate change, energy and environmental issues.  What will the 2016 State of the Union have to say about these topics?

We know from previous years' State of the Union speeches (2013, 2014, 2015) that energy, the environment, and climate change have played an increasing role in the Obama administration's priorities. While the administration released a "preview" video on Youtube for the 2016 address,  the brief clip doesn't include any substantive remarks about climate, energy, or the environment.

However, the Obama administration has been active on climate, energy and environmental issues, with key developments in the past year such as the adoption of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan regulations limiting power plant emissions of carbon dioxide and the denial of the Keystone XL pipeline's Presidential Permit application.  Indeed, President Obama has said that "no challenge poses a greater threat to our children, our planet, and future generations than climate change — and that no other country on Earth is better equipped to lead the world towards a solution."

Climate change, energy, and the environment are likely to be mentioned along with other administration priorities such as international relations, national security, gun violence, and the economy.  Indeed, the White House's State of the Union website features sections titled Economic Progress, Acting on Climate, Engagement in the World, Health Care Reform, and Social Progress and Equality.

Under the "Acting on Climate" heading, the administration website for this year's address notes the December 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, reduced domestic emissions, the largest investment in renewable energy in U.S. history, and associated job creation.  The website also provides a "Record on Climate Change", listing details of the administration's actions to address climate change.

President Obama's final State of the Union address to Congress will be streamed live at https://www.whitehouse.gov/sotu on January 12, 2016 at 9PM ET.

2014: natural gas, wind, solar led new projects

Natural gas, wind, and solar power projects dominated the rankings of new U.S. electric generation placed in service in 2014.

According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff's December 2014 Energy Infrastructure Update, developers placed in service 15,384 megawatts of new utility-scale electric generation capacity in 2014.  This new capacity buildout is within 4% of 2013's figure (15,886 megawatts).

Of 2014's new generating capacity, nearly half (7,485 megawatts, or 49%) is powered by natural gas.  U.S. production of natural gas has increased significantly in recent years, and natural gas prices have decreased in most regions of the country.  At the same time, new environmental regulations have made historically dominant coal relatively more expensive as a fuel source, while relatively low carbon emissions have made natural gas more attractive.  2014 thus continued the trends of coal-fired power plant retirement and the construction of new natural gas-fired generating capacity.

Wind represents the next largest category of new U.S. electric generating capacity placed in service in 2014.  Nearly 27% of 2014's new capacity, or 4,080 megawatts, is powered by wind.  As President Obama noted in his 2015 State of the Union address, the U.S. has more wind energy supplying its electrical grid than any other country.

Solar energy represents the third largest category of new generation placed in service last year.  Over 20% of new 2014 capacity, or 3,139 megawatts, is powered by solar energy.  The rapid growth of solar energy in the U.S. was also featured in President Obama's 2015 State of the Union speech, in which he noted, "Every three weeks, we bring online as much solar power as we did in all of 2008."

Combined, these three energy sources (natural gas, wind, and solar) account for over 95% of all new utility-scale generation capacity placed in service in 2014. Of the remaining capacity, biomass took the largest share (1.6% of total new capacity), with a diverse mix of other sources including water power, coal, and nuclear rounding out the list.  Notably, renewable sources including wind, solar, biomass, and hydropower account for nearly half of all new capacity placed in service in 2014.

What will 2015 bring?

Energy and State of the Union 2015

President Obama delivered his 2015 State of the Union address on January 20, 2015.  In his remarks as prepared for delivery, he addressed energy-related themes including the growth of U.S. energy resource production and climate change.

As in his 2013 and 2014 addresses, increased domestic production of energy resources featured prominently in the 2015 State of the Union speech, for its economic, political, and national security benefits:

At this moment – with a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling industry, and booming energy production – we have risen from recession freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth.  It’s now up to us to choose who we want to be over the next fifteen years, and for decades to come...

We believed we could reduce our dependence on foreign oil and protect our planet.  And today, America is number one in oil and gas.  America is number one in wind power.  Every three weeks, we bring online as much solar power as we did in all of 2008.  And thanks to lower gas prices and higher fuel standards, the typical family this year should save $750 at the pump.

During the past several years, U.S. production of oil and natural gas has increased significantly.  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in December 2014, and forecasts for oil productino continue to grow.  EIA predicts that projected crude oil production will reach 9.5 million bbl/d in 2016, constituting the second-highest annual average level of production in U.S. history (after 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970.)

EIA also predicts continued growth in the use of renewable energy resources to produce electricity and heat. In 2014, 6.4% of electric generation came from hydropower and 6.7% from nonhydropower renewables. EIA projects continued growth of nonhydropower renewables, reaching an electricity generation share of 7.9% by 2016.  Wind is the largest source of nonhydropower renewable generation, and it is projected to contribute 5.3% of total electricity generation in 2016.

President Obama also addressed climate change in this year's State of the Union address, and his administration's efforts to combat and mitigate its effects:

2014 was the planet’s warmest year on record.  Now, one year doesn’t make a trend, but this does – 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century. 

I’ve heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they’re not scientists; that we don’t have enough information to act.  Well, I’m not a scientist, either.  But you know what – I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities.  The best scientists in the world are all telling us that our activities are changing the climate, and if we do not act forcefully, we’ll continue to see rising oceans, longer, hotter heat waves, dangerous droughts and floods, and massive disruptions that can trigger greater migration, conflict, and hunger around the globe.  The Pentagon says that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security.  We should act like it.

That’s why, over the past six years, we’ve done more than ever before to combat climate change, from the way we produce energy, to the way we use it.  That’s why we’ve set aside more public lands and waters than any administration in history.  And that’s why I will not let this Congress endanger the health of our children by turning back the clock on our efforts.  I am determined to make sure American leadership drives international action.  In Beijing, we made an historic announcement – the United States will double the pace at which we cut carbon pollution, and China committed, for the first time, to limiting their emissions.  And because the world’s two largest economies came together, other nations are now stepping up, and offering hope that, this year, the world will finally reach an agreement to protect the one planet we’ve got.

His 2015 remarks on climate change reflect a belief or fear that Congress will not act on the issue, or will act to frustrate the Obama administration's efforts on climate change.  In 2013, President Obama asked Congress to develop a market-based solution to climate change, but said he would take executive action if Congress failed to act.  In 2014, he noted Congress's apparent unwillingness to act, and highlighted his administration's proposed new standards on power plant emissions of carbon.  This year's remarks continue the trend of featuring executive-branch solutions, and downplaying the likelihood of near-term legislative support.

Will U.S. production of energy continue to grow?  What economic, political, and national security impacts will flow from the shifts in and growth of the U.S. energy sector?  Will the U.S. continue to act -- or take more serious action -- on climate change?  The remainder of 2015 -- and of President Obama's term in office, which runs into January 2017 -- will show how these themes evolve.

Obama to unveil climate change plan

President Obama is expected to unveil his second-term plan to address climate change tomorrow.  In a video released this past weekend, President Obama announced that he will speak at Georgetown University on Tuesday to present his plan "for the steps we need to take to prepare our country for the impacts of climate change and lead the global effort to fight it."  While the details of his plan are not yet public, its scope and specifics may have a significant impact on both the environment and the economy.

The U.S. House of Representatives.

This is not the first time President Obama has spoken about climate change.  In his second inaugural address, he vowed to "respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations."  Similarly, in his 2013 State of the Union address, he asked Congress to develop a market-based solution, but vowed to take executive action if necessary.

Potential elements of his plan range in scope and impact.  President Obama has already issued an executive order promoting industrial energy efficiency; increasing support for energy efficiency is relatively likely to garner widespread support.  Potentially more impactful -- both in terms of potential to reduce carbon emissions and to increase costs -- are proposals to revise the rules for carbon emissions from existing power plants.  Some Republican Congressional leaders, like House Speaker John Boehner, have already called the climate change plans "absolutely crazy" and certain to increase the cost of energy, driving manufacturing and jobs overseas.

Tomorrow's speech will give us a better sense of Obama's policy direction on carbon emissions and climate change.  It is certain to be followed up a significant dialogue about both the importance of issue and the balancing of costs and benefits that is fundamental to policymaking.  Whether Congress acts, the president uses his executive powers to change policy, or both, remains to be seen.

What the 2013 State of the Union said about energy

Tonight President Obama delivered the 2013 State of the Union address.  Energy figured heavily in his remarks, with emphasis on energy efficiency, natural gas production, and renewable energy.  His newly proposed policies, some of which require congressional approval, aim to boost the economy while protecting the environment.  Here's a look at what he said, relying on the text released online by the New York Times as text as prepared for delivery, as provided by the White House.

The State of the Union is a key opportunity for a president to speak his mind to the public and to Congress.  Article II, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution directs the president to "from time to time give to Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient."  Presidents since Woodrow Wilson have delivered oral addresses to Congress.

President Obama's 2013 State of the Union address presented a number of energy issues and policies.  He criticized federal budget sequestration orders as disrupting priority programs including the energy sector:

In 2011, Congress passed a law saying that if both parties couldn’t agree on a plan to reach our deficit goal, about a trillion dollars’ worth of budget cuts would automatically go into effect this year. These sudden, harsh, arbitrary cuts would jeopardize our military readiness. They’d devastate priorities like education, energy, and medical research. They would certainly slow our recovery, and cost us hundreds of thousands of jobs. That’s why Democrats, Republicans, business leaders, and economists have already said that these cuts, known here in Washington as “the sequester,” are a really bad idea.

Energy security and sovereignty also figured prominently.  He cited advances in transportation fuel economy, renewable energy, natural gas, and reductions in carbon emissions:

After years of talking about it, we are finally poised to control our own energy future. We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas, and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar – with tens of thousands of good, American jobs to show for it. We produce more natural gas than ever before – and nearly everyone’s energy bill is lower because of it. And over the last four years, our emissions of the dangerous carbon pollution that threatens our planet have actually fallen.

Climate change also returned as a key area of focus, as it had in President Obama's second inaugural speech last month:

But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods – all are now more frequent and intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late.

To address climate change, President Obama asked Congress to develop a market-based solution, but vowed to take executive action if necessary:

The good news is, we can make meaningful progress on this issue while driving strong economic growth. I urge this Congress to pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change, like the one John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on together a few years ago. But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will. I will direct my Cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.

Clean energy continues to draw attention, while the development of economically-recoverable natural gas supplies is the latest energy revolution:

Four years ago, other countries dominated the clean energy market and the jobs that came with it. We’ve begun to change that. Last year, wind energy added nearly half of all new power capacity in America. So let’s generate even more. Solar energy gets cheaper by the year – so let’s drive costs down even further. As long as countries like China keep going all-in on clean energy, so must we.

In the meantime, the natural gas boom has led to cleaner power and greater energy independence. That’s why my Administration will keep cutting red tape and speeding up new oil and gas permits. But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research and technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and water.

President Obama also promoted energy efficiency, from getting the transportation sector off oil to improving residential, business and industrial energy efficiency.  He proposed to create a trust funded by oil and gas leases and royalties to help fund some of these shifts:

Indeed, much of our new-found energy is drawn from lands and waters that we, the public, own together. So tonight, I propose we use some of our oil and gas revenues to fund an Energy Security Trust that will drive new research and technology to shift our cars and trucks off oil for good. If a non-partisan coalition of CEOs and retired generals and admirals can get behind this idea, then so can we. Let’s take their advice and free our families and businesses from the painful spikes in gas prices we’ve put up with for far too long. I’m also issuing a new goal for America: let’s cut in half the energy wasted by our homes and businesses over the next twenty years. The states with the best ideas to create jobs and lower energy bills by constructing more efficient buildings will receive federal support to help make it happen.

Infrastructure investment was another point, including the electric power grid and pipeline networks:

America’s energy sector is just one part of an aging infrastructure badly in need of repair. Ask any CEO where they’d rather locate and hire: a country with deteriorating roads and bridges, or one with high-speed rail and internet; high-tech schools and self-healing power grids. The CEO of Siemens America – a company that brought hundreds of new jobs to North Carolina – has said that if we upgrade our infrastructure, they’ll bring even more jobs. And I know that you want these job-creating projects in your districts. I’ve seen you all at the ribbon-cuttings.

Tonight, I propose a “Fix-It-First” program to put people to work as soon as possible on our most urgent repairs, like the nearly 70,000 structurally deficient bridges across the country. And to make sure taxpayers don’t shoulder the whole burden, I’m also proposing a Partnership to Rebuild America that attracts private capital to upgrade what our businesses need most: modern ports to move our goods; modern pipelines to withstand a storm; modern schools worthy of our children. Let’s prove that there is no better place to do business than the United States of America. And let’s start right away.

The 2013 State of the Union address suggests continued growth in U.S. sectors such as energy efficiency, alternative transportation fuels, renewable energy, and infrastructure development and maintenance.  Carbon emissions may also be examined, with a national market-based carbon cap and trade program possible such as now exists in California and the northeastern Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative member states.  How Congress and the public react to these remarks remains to be seen, as does how and to what extent President Obama's proposed policy shifts are implemented.