California grid prepares for solar eclipse

As a total solar eclipse approaches for North America, California electricity regulators have launched a voluntary demand response program designed to reduce power consumption during the eclipse while solar panel output is reduced.

The eclipse will occur on August 21, 2017, and is projected to reduce solar photovoltaic production in the California ISO region by 4,194 megawatts.  Taking gross load increases and estimated wind production into account, CAISO has been told to expect a net load increase of 6,008 MW during the eclipse.

According to the nation's electric reliability organization, NERC, the August 21 eclipse "is not expected to impact the reliability of the bulk power system."  But as NERC also noted, "As the number of photovoltaic generators on the power system increases, the risk created by solar eclipses to reliable system operations will increase as well."

Now, the California Public Utilities Commission has launched a "Do Your Thing for the Sun" or "Cal Eclipse" program.  On its website, the Commission asks, "While our utilities and grid operator have all the tools necessary to manage the grid during the eclipse, what if millions of Californians stepped in to allow our hard working sun to take a break, rather than relying on expensive and inefficient natural gas peaking power plants?"

The website asks consumers to "Take the Pledge", emphasizing the value of "joining a movement of Californians who are taking action during the eclipse to give the sun a break by saving energy and reducing GHG emissions." According to a two-page FAQ posted on the website, consumers can reduce electricity consumption by turning off electronics when leaving, and permanently decrease electricity consumption with energy efficiency measures.  Actions suggested on the pledge website include replacing light bulbs with LEDs, reducing lighting use and electronics charging, unplugging unused appliances, and increasing air conditioning temperature setpoints by 2-5 degrees.

According to the Commission's FAQ, "There is no reason to anticipate any eclipse-related electric service outages because of the reduced solar generation."

Feds release June 2013 short-term energy outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released its updated short-term energy outlook.  The report describes recent trends in fuel and energy resource markets, and predicts future supply, demand, and prices.  Highlights from the June 2013 report include:

• Gasoline prices to decrease: EIA predicts that the price of regular gasoline will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer driving season.  Noting a decrease from 2012's annual average retail price of $3.63 per gallon, EIA predicts that gasoline will continue to decline in price to $3.49 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014.  That said, EIA notes significant uncertainty about this forecast based in part on current values of futures and options contracts.


• Crude oil prices to decrease: EIA predicts similar decreases in the price of crude oil through 2014.  Through much of the world, oil commodity pricing is based on the Brent crude price -- the price paid for a sweet light crude oil produced from Europe's North Sea fields.  Spot pricing for Brent crude bounced around in the first 5 months of 2012, ranging from a low of $97 per barrel in April to a high of $119 per barrel in February.  EIA expects a slow decrease in the Brent crude oil spot price, averaging $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. 


• Electricity usage to decrease while prices increase: EIA's forecasts call for milder temperatures than last summer, driving air conditioning-related demand for electricity downward.  At the same time, EIA expects a 2% increase in average prices for delivered electricity this summer.  Last year, the U.S. residential electricity price averaged 11.9 cents per kWh.  EIA expects this summer's average price to rise to 12.3 cents/kWh, with a 1.1 percent price increase in 2013 and a 1.9 percent in 2014. 

EIA's projections are based on a variety of assumptions about the domestic and global economies, energy project development, and weather-related demand for energy products.  EIA's next short-term energy outlook will be released on July 9, 2013.