RGGI states propose tighter carbon budget

The nine states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative have announced consensus on proposed revisions to that program that would provide a further 30% reduction in the regional limit on emissions by 2030, relative to 2020 levels.  The proposed regional program changes are now available for stakeholder comment, after which each participating state will follow its own specific statutory and regulatory processes to propose updates to their own carbon dioxide budget trading programs.

Nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states -- Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont -- currently participate in RGGI, the first mandatory market-based regulatory program in the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  RGGI is composed of individual CO2 budget trading programs in each state, based on each state’s independent legal authority.  The program imposes an annual aggregate cap on greenhouse emissions from covered sources like fossil-fueled power plants in participating states.  For 2017, the cap is 84.3 million short tons (62.5 million short tons adjusted for banked allowances); it declines 2.5 percent each year until 2020.  Since 2008, participating states have reduced power sector carbon emissions by nearly 50 percent, while generating more than $2.7 billion in allowance auction proceeds for reinvestment in programs to benefit consumers.

RGGI participating states periodically conduct a "program review".  Following their 2012 Program Review, the RGGI states implemented a new 2014 RGGI cap of 91 million short tons -- 45 % below the prior 2014 cap of 165 million short tons. At that time, the participating states decided to commence the next program review no later than 2016.

RGGI's 2016 Program Review is ongoing.  According to an August 23, 2017 announcement, the participating states have reached consensus on proposed changes to the program design.  Proposed changes include a regional cap of 75,147,784 tons in 2021, which will decline by 2.275 million tons per year thereafter, resulting in a total 30% reduction in the regional cap from 2020 to 2030.  The proposed changes also include modifications to the existing Cost Containment Reserve and implementation of a new Emissions Containment Reserve which would add some flexibility to the cap size.

On behalf of participating states, RGGI, Inc. has announced a meeting on September 25 to gather stakeholder input.  According to the announcement, after reviewing stakeholder comments, conducting additional economic analysis, and updating materials, each participating state is expected to execute its own statutory and regulatory process to update its own carbon budget trading program.

Maine RGGI report 2015: price impact "relatively modest", programs helpful

For 8 years, states in the Northeastern U.S. have participated in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.  RGGI, the first market-based greenhouse gas regulatory program in the United States, represents a cooperative effort by participating states to cap and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power sector, coupled with a market for auctioning and trading emission allowances.  While some groups feared that the RGGI program would increase electricity prices, a recent report by the Maine Public Utilities Commission found that the impact of RGGI on electricity prices in Maine has been relatively modest -- while finding that RGGI-funded programs contribute to economic development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

RGGI formed in 2007, when ten states -- Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont -- agreed to first cap, and then slowly reduce, the greenhouse gas emissions of their electrical energy sectors by 10% by 2018.  While New Jersey withdrew in 2012, the program has remained strong; in 2014, the remaining states subsequently tightened the RGGI cap for 2014 from 165 million short tons of carbon to 91 million short tons, then further declining 2.5% per year from 2015 to 2020.

While each participating state adopted its own laws implementing RGGI, in general the RGGI laws require certain generators of electricity to track their carbon emissions and acquire an “allowance” for every ton of carbon dioxide or its equivalent that they emit.  States conduct periodic auctions of allowances, and market participants are free to engage in secondary market trades.  Generators must purchase or trade for enough emissions allowances to match the number of tons of CO2-equivalent emitted.  The cost of acquiring these allowances gives generators an incentive to improve their efficiency or switch to fuels with a lower carbon intensity.

Each state also adopted its own laws governing the use of funds raised by state auctions of RGGI allowances.  In Maine, most funds go to the Efficiency Maine Trust for purposes including measures, investments and arrangements that reduce electricity consumption or reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower energy costs at commercial or industrial facilities, and for investment in measures that lower residential heating energy demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

RGGI has conducted 27 quarterly allowance auctions since September 2008, through which Maine has received a cumulative total of $ 62.22 million in RGGI auction proceeds.  Maine’s auction proceeds in 2014 totaled $11.37 million. According to the Maine Public Utilities Commission's report:

the annual cost to Maine ratepayers of the RGGI program was approximately $0.0024 per kWh. For the average Maine residential customer using 530 kWh per month, the 2014 RGGI program cost was approximately $ 1.27 per month. For a commercial customer using 25,000 kWh per month the 2014 RGGI program cost was approximately $60.00 per month. A large commercial or industrial customer using 500,000 kWh per month would have had a 2014 RGGI program cost of approximately $1,200 per month.

On the benefits side of the ledger, the Commission's report cites a finding that "all RGGI proceeds since 2008 are expected to return more than $2 billion in lifetime energy bill savings to more than 3 million households and more than 12,000 businesses across the eight states taking part in RGGI."  The Commission also cited its July 2014 report to the Legislature quantifying the increases in employment, real personal income, and gross state product expected to occur in Maine as a result of the cap tightening and other changes implemented in 2014.  That report found:

economic impacts for the New England region include a cumulative increase in Gross Regional Product of over $2 billion, a cumulative increase in employment of 38,900 job-years, and a cumulative increase in real personal income of $1.5 billion including a cumulative increase in Maine Gross State Product of $200 million, a cumulative increase in employment of more than 5,000 job-years, and a cumulative increase in real personal income of $100 million.

Based on these observations, the Maine Public Utilities Commission's 2015 report on RGGI concludes that "the impact of RGGI on electricity prices has been relatively modest, while RGGI-funded programs contribute to the gross state product, job growth, and personal income, and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

June 13, 2011 - RGGI carbon auction results

The latest carbon auction results from the RGGI program show a market in uncertainty.

The "Old Woolen Mill" on the Great Works River in North Berwick, Maine.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is the first market-based greenhouse gas regulatory program in the United States.  RGGI represents a cooperative effort by Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.  These ten states agreed to cap and reduce their electrical energy sector's greenhouse gas emissions by 10% by 2018.

While each state's legislature implemented its own version of the compact, the overall structure is that carbon allowances are auctioned off to the power sector.  Proceeds from these auctions are invested in energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other clean energy technologies.  The program has been a success in creating jobs, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector, and funding high-yield energy efficiency projects at businesses.

RGGI just held its twelfth auction.  (You can read the market monitor's report, a 10-page PDF, here.)  Altogether, the auction raised $25.5 million.  Each participating state's energy programs get a share in those proceeds based on how the underlying carbon allowances were allocated; for Maine, the twelfth auction yielded just under $770,000.  Since 2007, Maine has received $26 million through the program, which has been invested in energy efficiency through the Efficiency Maine Trust.

Interestingly, only 30 percent of the current-period carbon allowances available in the auction actually changed hands.  This low demand for allowances is striking, particularly since the price was as low as it could be: the auction floor price of $1.89 per short ton of CO2.  This apparent oversupply has emerged as the RGGI market matured; in the initial auction, the bid demand was four times larger than the supply.  While supply first outpaced demand for the tenth auction, held in December 2010, the 30% figure represents a new low for auction demand.

RGGI's thirteenth auction is scheduled for September 7, 2011.