New England electric load to grow, grid operator says

Electricity consumption in New England will increase by about 17 percent over the next ten years, according to the regional grid operator, mostly due to the electrification of heating and transportation.

ISO New England tracks and projects power generation as well as consumer demand. Its 2024-2033 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT Report) provides a ten-year look at projected power system characteristics. 

According to the grid operator, 2024 represents an inflection point in New England's electricity use, as the regional trend shifts from declining power consumption, back to significant growth. 

From 1995 to 2005, net annual energy use in New England grew steadily. ISO-NE attributes the growth primarily to "increased economic growth and the use of air conditioning". Since peaking in 2005 at 136,425 gigawatt-hours, net annual energy use in the region has generally decreased. ISO-NE attributes the reduction primarily to "an increase in energy efficiency from advanced cooling and heating technologies, energy-efficient appliances and lighting, and the increased prevalence of BTM solar generation."

Now, ISO-NE projects another reversal of this trend, as it forecasts "steady growth in net annual energy use as state policy goals for carbon emissions reductions drive the increased electrification of heating systems and transportation in the region." The grid operator projects that electric vehicles (EVs) "will account for 15,182 GWh of energy use in 2033, while heating electrification is expected to account for 7,996 GWh that year." After considering growth in behind-the-meter solar and efficiency measures, these projections represent an increase of about 17% in regional net annual energy use; meeting these needs will likely require significant new generating plants and transmission facilities.

ISO-NE also projects that the region will shift from summer-peaking to winter-peaking soon after 2033, due to heating electrification. Specifically, the grid operator expects winter demand to grow faster (3% annually under typical weather conditions) than summer demand (1%). 

ISO-NE notes that behind-the-meter solar power "does not reduce winter peak demand, because the peak typically occurs after sunset."