Paris climate agreement walkthrough

On December 12, the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted Decision 1/CP.21, adopting the Paris Agreement under that convention. The Paris Agreement itself is 12 pages long, and includes a preamble and 29 articles.  Its details merit a close read, as parties spent countless hours negotiating every word and piece of punctuation in the document.  Some articles have many operative clauses and address topics like temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions, while other articles are more ministerial.  Billions of dollars, and maybe the fate of the world, rests on the terms of these legal documents and how they are implemented.

Here's a overview-level walkthrough of the Paris Agreement:

• Preamble: recognizes climate change as a "common concern of humankind" and an "urgent threat" to which an "effective and progressive response" is necessary, that least developed countries and others may have specific needs, and interactions with other social values like food security, decent work and quality jobs, and "the importance for some of the concept of 'climate justice'".
• Article 1 provides definitions for Convention, Conference of the Parties, and Party.
• Article 2 defines the Agreement's aim as "to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty," including a long-term temperature goal, a call for increased adaptation, and "making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development."
• Article 3 requires all parties "to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts as defined in Articles 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, and 13" as "nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change."
• Article 4 addresses the long-term temperature goal established in Article 2.  It requires each party to "prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve" and to pursue domestic mitigation measures.  Parties are expected to increase the level of ambition reflected in their nationally determined contributions over time.  Developed country parties are expected to take the lead, while supporting developing country parties and small island developing states.
• Article 5 calls for conservation and enhancement of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases, including forests.  
• Article 6 recognizes that some parties may choose to pursue voluntary cooperation in implementing their nationally determined contributions.  It establishes a mechanism to promote and track "internationally transferred mitigation outcomes."  It also defines a framework to promote non-market approaches.
• Article 7 establishes a global goal of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change.  It requires parties to engage in adaptation planning processes and actions.  It also requires periodic "adaptation communication" reporting to the secretariat.
• Article 8 addresses averting, minimizing, and dealing with "loss and damage" associated with the adverse effects of climate change, "including extreme weather events and slow onset events."  It uses the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts as its basis.
• Article 9 calls for developed country parties to provide financial resources to assist developing country parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation, and to take the lead in "mobilizing climate finance from a wide variety of sources, instruments, and channels."
• Article 10 promotes technology development and transfer to "improve resilience to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."
• Article 11 calls for "capacity-building", to enhance the capacity and ability of developing country and vulnerable parties to take effective climate change action such as adaptation and mitigation.
• Article 12 requires cooperation on "climate change education, training, public awareness, public participation and public access to information."
• Article 13 creates an "enhanced transparency framework for action and support" to build trust and confidence while allowing flexible and effective implementation.  It requires each party to regularly provide a "national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases," and information on how it has provided financial, technology transfer and capacity-building support to other countries.
• Article 14 requires a "global stocktake" -- that the parties periodically "take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals."  Article 14 provides that the Conference of the Parties shall undertake its first global stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter unless the Conference otherwise decides.
• Article 15 establishes an expert-based committee as "a mechanism to facilitate implementation of and promote compliance with" the Paris Agreement.
• Article 16 provides procedures for aligning future meetings of parties to the Paris Agreement with the meetings of the Conference of the Parties.
• Articles 17, 18, and 19 provide procedures for the Convention secretariat, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice and Subsidiary Body for Implementation established by the Convention to also apply to the Paris Agreement.
• Article 20 provides processes for signature, ratification, acceptance, approval and accession of the Paris Agreement.
• Article 21 provides that the Paris Agreement "shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 percent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."
• Articles 22 and 23 provide processes for adopting any amendments or annexes to the Paris Agreement.
• Article 24 governs dispute resolution.
• Article 25 provides that each party shall have one vote, and establishes a process for "regional economic integration organizations" to vote as a bloc.
• Article 26 provides that the Secretary-General of the United Nations shall be the Depositary of the Paris Agreement.
• Article 27 prohibits any reservations being made to the Agreement.
• Article 28 provides a process for a party to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
• Article 29 governs the original of the Paris Agreement.

The final language of the Paris Agreement's 29 articles, and Decision 1/CP.21 adopting the Paris Agreement, were each adopted by consensus by all of the 195 member states and the European Union participating in the COP21 summit.  Decision 1/CP.21 and the Paris Agreement will play important roles going forward as the world tackles climate change.  Their language will shape business, government, society, and the environment. 

Report: climate change poses risks to US energy sector

Climate change poses significant risks to U.S. energy infrastructure, and the reliability and cost of the services it enables, according to a report released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Energy.

The report - U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Report (4.2MB PDF) was developed as part of the Obama Administration’s efforts to support national climate change adaptation planning and to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of promoting energy security. These efforts are embodied by the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and Strategic Sustainability Planning process established under Executive Order 13514.

The report is predicated on the findings that the U.S. climate is changing, and that these changes impact energy resources and infrastructure. As the report states, "Climatic conditions are already affecting energy production and delivery in the United States, causing supply disruptions of varying lengths and magnitude and affecting infrastructure and operations dependent upon energy supply." The report provides over 30 recent examples of energy infrastructure adversely impacted by climate change-related events such as power plant outages due to high temperatures or low water availability, storm damage to transmission lines, oil wells, pipelines and generators, and flooding-related disruption of fuel transportation systems.

Building on these findings, the report identifies a broad set of risks posed by climate trends, including increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing storms, sea level rise, and flooding, as well as the current and potential future impacts of these climate trends on the U.S. energy sector. According to the report, each of these trends will independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the United States to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, nuclear, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. These changes are also projected to affect the nation’s demand for energy and its ability to access, produce, and distribute oil and natural gas.

In particular, significant risks identified include:

• Thermoelectric power generation facilities are at risk from decreasing water availability and increasing ambient air and water temperatures, which reduce the efficiency of cooling, increase the likelihood of exceeding water thermal intake or effluent limits that protect local ecology, and increase the risk of partial or full shutdowns of generation facilities
• Energy infrastructure located along the coast is at risk from sea level rise, increasing intensity of storms, and higher storm surge and flooding, potentially disrupting oil and gas production, refining, and distribution, as well as electricity generation and distribution
• Oil and gas production, including unconventional oil and gas production (which constitutes an expanding share of the nation’s energy supply) is vulnerable to decreasing water availability given the volumes of water required for enhanced oil recovery, hydraulic fracturing, and refining
• Renewable energy resources, particularly hydropower, bioenergy, and concentrating solar power can be affected by changing precipitation patterns, increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, and increasing temperatures
• Electricity transmission and distribution systems carry less current and operate less efficiently when ambient air temperatures are higher, and they may face increasing risks of physical damage from more intense and frequent storm events or wildfires
• Fuel transport by rail and barge is susceptible to increased interruption and delay during more frequent periods of drought and flooding that affect water levels in rivers and ports
• Onshore oil and gas operations in Arctic Alaska are vulnerable to thawing permafrost, which may cause damage to existing infrastructure and restrict seasonal access, while offshore operations could benefit from a longer sea ice-free season
• Increasing temperatures will likely increase electricity demand for cooling and decrease fuel oil and natural gas demand for heating

Looking on the brighter side, the report notes that while climate change will, on balance, create challenges and costs for the energy sector, there are potential benefits to the energy sector as well. Examples include reduced average heating loads during the winter in parts of the United States, such as New England, and the opening of new regions to offshore oil and gas exploration due to shrinking sea ice cover in the Arctic. The report also covers adaptation actions underway, as well as other major opportunities to prepare for climate change through adaptation. Nevertheless, on balance, the report finds that the magnitude of the challenge posed by climate change on an aging and already stressed U.S. energy system could outpace current adaptation efforts, unless a more comprehensive and accelerated approach is adopted. Will the U.S. follow that path? What measures will it include? Will it make a difference?

Corn, ethanol, drought, and demand

Corn plays an important role in current United States transportation fuel policy - but environmental and economic factors are putting the pinch on corn ethanol producers.

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program requires transportation fuel sold in the United States to contain at least a minimum volume of renewable fuel.  This renewable fuel is generally ethanol, produced by fermenting sugars contained in plant feedstocks like sugar cane and sugar beets, or sugars produced by converting plant-based starches like corn starch.  The program's goals include reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, reducing petroleum imports, and encouraging the development and expansion of the domestic renewable fuels sector.

In the U.S., more than 95 percent of operating ethanol plants reportedly use corn starch as their feedstock.  According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. farmers planted 96.4 million acres of corn this year, the highest corn acreage since 1937.  Favorable field conditions this spring led to the quickest planting pace on record, with nearly all of the corn planted by May 20 and plants emerged by June 3.

This summer's high temperatures and widespread drought conditions - with nearly 56% of the area of the 48 contiguous states experiencing drought - have hurt the U.S. corn crop, resulting in reduced estimates for this year's crop.  This anticipated reduction is driving corn prices up, with the commodity trading at over $7 per bushel (contrast a 2007 U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis of transportation biofuels assuming corn prices of about $2 per bushel).  This price increase is cutting into ethanol producers' bottom line.

At the same time, transportation fuel consumers are driving less.  Between increased fleet efficiency prompted by both governmental mandates and a natural desire to cut costs, and the overall slowdown in the national economy, overall demand for ethanol fuel has not grown at the pace previously projected.

According to Reuters, the average ethanol plant operating in Illinois is currently losing 32 cents on every gallon it produces.  As a result, many ethanol plants are running below their production capacity, and several have announced planned closures.  EIA data shows that ethanol production dropped 4% last week to 821,000 barrels per day, the lowest production rate since July 23, 2010.

Proponents of blending ethanol into transportation fuels point to its nature as a renewable biofuel, lower cost than gasoline, and ability to be produced domestically.  Critics question the wisdom of converting a potential food crop into an energy commodity, as well as the economic and environmental consequences of current pro-ethanol policies.  Whatever the ultimate outcome, the climatic and economic conditions affecting the corn ethanol industry may be calling into question the sustainability of the current system.