FERC official testifies on electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances

Electromagnetic pulse and geomagnetic disturbance events "pose a serious threat to the electric grid and its supporting infrastructures that serve our Nation," according to testimony delivered by a federal official to the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events are two types of events that could affect the nation's electric grid. Generally speaking, GMD events are naturally occurring solar magnetic disturbances which periodically disrupt the earth’s magnetic field. These disruptions can induce currents on the electric grid that may simultaneously damage or destroy key transformers over a large geographic area.

On February 27, 2019, Joseph McClellan, director of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Office of Energy Infrastructure Security, testified before the Senate committee. As described in his testimony, EMP events can be generated by "devices that range from small, portable, easily concealed battery-powered units all the way through missiles equipped with nuclear warheads." High-altitude nuclear detonations can generate three distinct EMP effects: "a short high energy radio-frequency-type burst called E1 that can destroy electronics; a slightly longer burst that is similar to lightning termed E2; and a final effect termed E3 that is similar in character and effect to GMD, with the potential to damage transformers and other electrical equipment."

According to Director McClellan's testimony, any of these effects could lead to "wide-area blackouts." In his testimony, he cited reports by the federal EMP Commission as finding that "a single EMP attack could seriously degrade or shut down a large part of the electric power grid," with the potential that significant parts of electric infrastructure could be “out of service for periods measured in months to a year or more."

He also cited a 2010 study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory as finding that "EMP and GMD events pose substantial risk to equipment and operation of the Nation’s electric grid and under extreme conditions could result in major long-term electrical outages," that "GMD disturbances are inevitable with only the timing and magnitude subject to variability," and that a solar storm such as occurred in 1921 "could damage or destroy over 300 bulk power system transformers interrupting service to 130 million people with some outages lasting for a period of years." Director McClellan clarified that subsequent analysis suggested that in case of such an event, "the power grid may collapse before significant damage was done to transformers; resulting in a potentially wide-spread, but relatively short, power outage."

Director McClellan also spoke to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's "dual-fold approach" to address these threats: employing mandatory standards to establish foundational practices while also working collaboratively with industry, the states and federal agencies to identify and promote best practices to mitigate advanced threats. According to a report released in 2018 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, U.S. and Canadian electricity suppliers have taken steps to prepare for potential electromagnetic disruptions, but more research is needed on both geomagnetic disturbances and high-altitude electromagnetic pulses.

GAO report on electric grid geomagnetic disturbances

A report released by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found that U.S. and Canadian electricity suppliers have taken steps to prepare for potential electromagnetic disruptions to the electric grid such as from solar storms or high-altitude nuclear detonations -- but that more research is needed on both geomagnetic disturbances and high-altitude electromagnetic pulses.

Under some circumstances, a severe solar storm or high-altitude nuclear blast could damage the U.S. electric grid and potentially cause extensive outages. Federal energy regulators have used both regulatory and more informal collaborative approaches to address the threat to the electric grid posed by electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances. Regulatory approaches to electromagnetic disturbance readiness include mandatory reliability standards adopted by electric reliability organization NERC, which require some electricity suppliers to assess their vulnerability to extreme solar storms, and developing procedures for responding to grid security emergencies.

In this context, the Government Accountability Office was asked to review electricity industry actions to prepare for and mitigate electromagnetic risks. Its 95-page report, Critical Infrastructure Protection: Electricity Suppliers Have Taken Actions to Address Electromagnetic Risks, and Additional Research is Ongoing, examines topics including the degree to which U.S. and Canadian electricity generation and transmission owners and operators have identified information about the effects on the grid caused by geomagnetic disturbances and high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMP), steps some suppliers have taken to protect against GMD and HEMP, and opportunities for U.S. suppliers to recover costs for protecting against GMD and HEMP.

According to the report, there is "general agreement that more research is needed on both GMD and HEMP." Risks identified include potential voltage instability leading to collapse of the bulk power system and blackouts, as well as possible damage to key system components. But more information is needed, according to the report -- especially on HEMP effects, given that previous studies have focused on impacts to military equipment as opposed to the commercial electric grid.

The cost of addressing reliability concerns can be significant. The GAO report describes some suppliers' reports "that costs they have incurred to protect against GMD and HEMP have been relatively small so far and they expect to recover those costs through customer rates." But the report warns that suppliers could face future increased costs, as a second regulatory standard phases in through 2022. For example, the report cites one supplier serving about 4.5 million retail customers as estimating "the cost of hardening a planned control center against HEMP to be at least $10 million." GAO calculated that fully passing this cost on to customers in a single year would add $2 to the average customer ’s electric bill for that year.

While regulated U.S. suppliers may be able to recover GMD protection costs through rates, the report notes that recovery is less certain for protection against HEMP because less is known about HEMP risks. The report also presages challenges for any kind of reliability-driven cost recovery for independent owners of power plants, who must recover reliability improvement costs through their sales of electricity without assurances about market prices.

FERC proposes geomagnetic disturbance reliability standard

Is the U.S. electric grid ready for solar storms and other geomagnetic disturbances?  Today the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed approving a new reliability standard for the grid to address its vulnerability to these hazards.

A utility substation near Treasureton in southeast Idaho.

Periodic activity on the Sun's surface sends powerful waves of energetic particles toward the Earth.  These solar events can distort the Earth's magnetic field, affecting the flow of electricity on Earth.  While serious geomagnetic disturbances are expected to be infrequent, they can cause blackouts and damage key utility infrastructure.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has jurisdiction over the reliability of the U.S.'s bulk electric power system.  To this end, it has designated the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) as the nation's electric reliability organization.  In May 2013, FERC directed NERC to develop and submit new standards for protecting the grid against geomagnetic disturbances (Order No. 779). 

FERC and NERC have proceeded in a two-stage process.  First, in June 2014 FERC approved a standard on implementation of operating plans, procedures and processes to mitigate effects of geomagnetic disturbances (Order No. 797).

Reserved for the second stage were further requirements that transmission planners and owners assess the vulnerability of their systems to a theoretical benchmark event.  NERC subsequently proposed such a standard, calling for an evaluation of what would happen in a “one-in-100-year” benchmark event.

In a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking issued today, the FERC proposes to largely adopt NERC’s proposed second-stage standard.  The standard would require covered entities to have system models needed to complete vulnerability assessments, to have criteria for acceptable steady state voltage performance during a benchmark event, and to complete a vulnerability assessment once every 60 calendar months. If the assessment indicates that a system does not meet the performance requirements, the entity would have to develop a corrective action plan addressing how the requirements will be met.

The proposed rulemaking would direct NERC to further modify its standard to require that the study and benchmarking of geomagnetic disturbance events is based on a more complete set of data and a reasonable scientific and engineering approach.

Comments on today’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking are due 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register.

Geomagnetic disturbances, and their impacts to the grid, are a hot topic in energy regulation at the present. States are considering laws regulating utility readiness for and response to geomagnetic disturbances; for example, next week the Maine Legislature’s Joint Standing Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Technology will consider LD 1363, An Act To Secure the Maine Electrical Grid from Long-term Blackouts.