U.S. coal production declined again in 2019

Recently released federal data shows that U.S. coal production (mining) peaked in 2008, and has declined significantly since then. 2019 U.S. total annual coal production was 706 million short tons, a 7% reduction relative to 2018. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2019's level of domestic coal production was the lowest since 1978.

Federal coal production data illustrates the recent history of this energy commodity. After modest production declines in the 1950s, total annual U.S. coal production grew steadily decade after decade from about 1963 to 2008. This overall growth curve was marked by minor deviations, such as in 1978 when most coal mining was shut down for several months due to a labor strike by coal miners, but coal's general trend was up for the latter half of the twentieth century and into the present millennium.

But since 2008, U.S. coal production has declined significantly. While some years have shown minor increases in production, most years between 2008 and 2016 were marked by significant decreases in production, and the overall trend has been sharply down.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Coal Report

According to EIA, its weekly coal production estimates for 2020 suggest continued steep decreases this year, with the agency projecting output "falling to production levels comparable with those in the 1960s." These estimates are based on EIA's coal railcar loading data, which so far show a 2020 year-to-date decline of 27% relative to 2019.

EIA attributes the ongoing decline in U.S. coal production to "less demand for coal internationally and less generation from U.S. coal-fired power plants." U.S. coal exports in the first five months of 2020 were 29% below the comparable period in 2019. Meanwhile, U.S.coal-fired electricity generation declined about 16% in 2019 year-over-year to reach a 42-year low, and EIA data shows coal-fired generation has fallen another 34% through May 2020.

Coal's decline comes at the same time as significant growth in renewable resources. United States consumers used more energy from renewable sources than from coal in 2019, the first time that national renewable energy use has exceeded coal since at least 1885. Some regions, such as New England, have effectively ended coal use for electric power generation (coal provided just 0.1% of ISO New England system power in 2019).

Going forward, EIA projects U.S. coal production for the whole year will be about 29% below 2019 levels: a reduction in coal production of over one-quarter. EIA thinks coal production may rebound by 7% in 2021 "when rising natural gas prices may cause some coal-fired electric power plants to become more economical to dispatch".