RGGI states comment on Clean Power Plan

The nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) have submitted joint comments to the United States Environmental Protection Agency in connection with its Clean Power Plan rule.

RGGI is a cooperative effort among the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont to cap and reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector.  The program establishes a regional cap on the amount of carbon dioxide that power plants can emit through the issuance of a limited number of tradable allowances.  RGGI's first three-year compliance period began on January 1, 2009, making it the nation’s first market-based emissions trading program to reduce greenhouse gas pollution.

On August 3, 2015, the EPA announced its "Clean Power Plan," new regulations limiting power plant carbon emissions under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act.  While states are free to build their own compliance plans, the rule establishes emission guidelines for states to follow in developing plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired electric generating units.  The rule also encourages states and regions to work together in developing compliance plans.

States are now tasked with developing their compliance plans.  The Clean Power Plan gives states until September 6, 2016, to either submit a final carbon-cutting plan or to submit an initial plan along with a two-year extension request.  Many observers have noted that for states already participating in RGGI, that program may be able to serve as a mechanism for Clean Power Plan compliance.  This prospect is natural, as RGGI and the Clean Power Plan share some common goals and features.

This week, the nine RGGI states submitted joint comments to the EPA on the Federal Plan (FP) and Model Rules (MR) proposed as part of the Clean Power Plan.  In those comments, the RGGI states "welcome EPA's continued recognition that well-designed multi-state, market-based programs like RGGI can deliver cost-effective emissions reductions."

In an accompanying press release, the RGGI states note their own "track record of success."  As cited in the joint comments, the "RGGI states have seen benefits to the economy and public health, as well as consumer savings, experiencing 8 percent GDP growth across the region while reducing power sector carbon pollution by more than 40 percent since 2005," while maintaining electric reliability.

Based on this experience, the RGGI states encouraged EPA to select mass-based approaches as the most cost-effective, transparent, and reliable way to achieve emission reductions.  (Mass-based approaches set limits on the total mass of carbon allowed to be emitted -- like 100 million tons.  By contrast, rate-based approaches might limit the rate of carbon emissions per unit of useful electric energy.)

Recognizing that trading platforms can play an important role in markets, increasing participation, access, and liquidity, the RGGI states urged EPA to "adopt a trading platform that is flexible and customizable to encourage broader trading markets."

The RGGI states also asked EPA to encourage auctioning of carbon allowances, and reinvestment of the auction proceeds.  In so doing, the RGGI states pointed to their own reinvestment of RGGI auction proceeds in efficiency and consumer relief.

Finally, the RGGI states encouraged EPA to prevent "leakage" of carbon emissions from existing sources to new sources, by including new sources in a mass-based program or some other equally effective alternative method of allocation.

With states now working to develop Clean Power Plan compliance strategies, how will the RGGI experience shape state plans to comply with the Clean Power Plan?

NERC suggests Clean Power Plan reliability considerations

The electric reliability organization for North America has issued an assessment of reliability considerations it thinks state electricity and environmental regulators should take into account in crafting state plans to comply with the Clean Power Plan.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is a not‐for‐profit regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the reliability of North America's bulk power system.

Last year, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its Clean Power Plan, a final rule limiting carbon dioxide emissions for existing electric generation facilities.  States are expected to prepare individual or collaborative plans to comply with the regulation.  Because reducing the carbon intensity of electric power generation is the goal, EPA expects that some plans will include a shift from coal-fired power plants to less carbon-intensive sources.  As NERC wrote in its assessment:

The BPS is already undergoing a broad transformation with retirements of coal units and some nuclear units, and additions of resources fueled by natural gas, wind, and solar. Distributed generation, energy efficiency, and demand response are also changing the way in which system planners must account for resources. The CPP has the potential to hasten the transformation of the electric system started by market and political factors such as natural gas supply and pricing and federal and state policy decisions with respect to renewables and energy efficiency and other environmental regulations.

But reliability is a key issue at stake in any shift in the portfolio of generating resources.  The Clean Power Plan rule explicitly requires that states consider reliability as part of their plans.

NERC's assessment, Reliability Considerations for Clean Power Plan Development, presents its view of "aspects of plan design that need to be considered to reliably accommodate this broad transformation."  NERC's ten key reliability considerations are:

• State coordination with system planning entities - planners and coordinators working together
• Essential reliability services - "In order to maintain an adequate level of reliability through this transition, generation resources need to provide sufficient voltage control, frequency support, and ramping capability — essential components to the reliable operation of the BPS. It is necessary for policy makers to recognize the need for these services by ensuring that interconnection requirements, market mechanisms, or other reliability requirements provide sufficient means of adapting the system to accommodate large amounts of variable and/or distributed energy resources (DERs)."
• Timing considerations for energy infrastructure development - "Retirements can happen quickly, but adequate replacement facilities must be in service prior to retirement. As natural gas‐fired generation replaces coal‐fired generation the requisite timeline for natural gas pipeline infrastructure becomes even more relevant."
• Electricity imports and exports - "If a state intends to use resources from nearby states as part of a compliance strategy, it is important to determine if the necessary transmission capability is available to reliably transport electricity from those resources."
• Change in generator cycling and operations - coal plants may serve more seasonal peak demands, so "states should take account of changes in maintenance requirements likely due to cycling and the risk of increased forced outages of these coal‐fired plants. Additionally, increased and sufficient coordination between gas and electric system operators becomes much more critical to ensure adequate amounts of fuel are available."
• Reserve margin assessment - "As more variable and energy ‐ limited resources are added, the system will likely require additional reserve capacity to maintain a similar level of reliability compared to a system with all conventional generation."
• Energy efficiency - "Given that EE can be used as a potential CPP compliance tool, it is important that states evaluate the realistic potential for EE to displace load and the likely duration of those impacts. Shorter term EE measures may serve as a potential bridge to meet CPP requirements."
• Emissions trading - "In general, emissions trading promotes additional reliability compliance options by effectively broadening the compliance region as well as the availability of allowances and credits. However, some resource options that might be assumed available through emissions trading may not be, due to another state’s plan. Because trading is optional, states should coordinate to ensure the most beneficial approach of trading is considered."
• Reliability safety valve - "States must understand how the Reliability Safety Valve works and its limits, recognizing that it cannot be used as a planning tool to meet CPP requirements."
• North American and European precedents - states should review carbon market precedents like RGGI and shifts in Canada and Europe toward renewable and distributed resources as case studies for potential strategies, lessons learned in implementation, and insights as they develop their plans.

Some states are already developing Clean Power Plan compliance plans.  Meanwhile, judicial challenges have been filed.  Initial plans are due to the EPA later this year.

FERC staff guidance for Clean Power Plan modeling

Staff of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have issued a white paper presenting guidance principles for modeling state plans to comply with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan carbon regulations from existing fossil fuel-fired electric power plants.

The EPA issued the Clean Power Plan on August 3, 2015 as a regulation under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act.  The Clean Power Plan limits carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired electric power plants.  The final rule provides state specific goals for carbon dioxide emissions from affected electric generating units, including interim emissions goals from 2022 to 2029 and a final goal for 2030.

Due to congressional concern that environmental regulations not jeopardize the reliability of the electric grid, each covered state must demonstrate that it has considered reliability issues in developing its plan.  That consideration of reliability is certain to include modeling.  The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has entered into an agreement with EPA and the U.S. Department of Energy to coordinate certain activities to help ensure continued reliable electricity generation and transmission during the Clean Power Plan's implementation.

In furtherance of that mission, on January 19, 2016, staff of the Commission released an 18-page white paper identifying four guiding principles that may assist transmission planning entities in conducting effective analysis of the Clean Power Plan and associated state, regional, or federal compliance plans.

These guiding principles address four areas:

• Transparency and stakeholder engagement: "transparency and stakeholder engagement in model development, model inputs and study designs can help identify policy alternatives and effectively evaluate assumptions, while also improving coordination across transmission planning regions."
• Study methodology and interactions between studies: "incorporating changes to current study methodologies can allow transmission planning entities to more effectively assess the impact of the CPP and associated compliance plans."
• Study inputs, sensitivities and probabilistic analysis: "using study inputs that account for uncertainty and test for sensitivity can help effectively assess the impact of the CPP and associated compliance plans."
• Tools and techniques: "adopting new modeling tools and techniques may help transmission planning entities better assess the overall impact of the CPP and associated compliance plans."

The FERC staff white paper notes that while "effectively evaluating the impacts of the CPP may present challenges, these challenges can be mitigated by using appropriate modeling tools and techniques."  Under the Clean Power Plan, states have until September 6, 2016, to submit either a final carbon-cutting plan or to request a two-year extension and to submit an initial plan for EPA review.