US energy-related CO2 emissions projected to decline

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. are projected to decrease by 2.2 percent in 2019 relative to the previous year, according to the latest forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

EIA tracks energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Petroleum made up nearly half of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018, at 45 percent of all energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation, heating, and electric power generation sectors consume significant amounts of petroleum. EIA projects petroleum CO2 emissions will remain relatively flat in 2019, relative to 2018. 

According to EIA, nearly all of its forecast decrease for 2019 is due to reduced emissions from coal consumption. EIA forecasts that coal-derived CO2 emissions will decrease by 169 million metric tons (MMmt) in 2019. This represents the largest year-over-year decrease in coal-derived CO2 emissions since 2015. Nearly all the coal used in the U.S. -- 92 percent -- is consumed by the electric power sector; EIA attributes the decline to forecast changes in the electricity generation mix, with coal plants retiring and relatively milder summer weather expected to lead to overall lower electricity demand.

While coal-related emissions are projected to decline, EIA projects that forecast natural gas CO2 emissions will increase by 53 MMmt, largely due to increased use of natural gas to displace coal for electric power generation. According to EIA, the decrease in coal emissions will more than outweigh the increase in natural gas emissions, because natural gas-fired electricity generation is less carbon-intensive than coal-fired electricity generation.