New England electric demand projected to grow by electrifying heating and transportation

The operator of New England's electricity grid projects that demand for power will increase by 23% over the next 10 years "due to accelerating electrification of the heating and transportation sectors." State and federal policymakers are promoting "beneficial electrification", the replacement of carbon-emitting fossil fuel uses with lower-carbon-intensity electricity as a power source. The trend has potential to significantly decarbonize the region's transportation and heating sectors, which collectively emit many times more greenhouse gases than the region's electric power sector.

ISO New England's 2023–2032 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT Report) presents the grid operator's perspective on the region's power system, including a long-term forecast for energy consumption and peak demand. To prepare the forecast, ISO-NE first develops a gross long-term forecast for electricity demand, based on factors including economic forecasts and weather data -- and increasingly on projections for the electricity needed to power electric vehicles and air-source heat pumps that are being added to the grid. ISO-NE then backs out its projection of energy efficiency and behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic production, to yield a net forecast.

According to the latest CELT report, gross annual electricity use is expected to grow by 2.4% annually over the 10-year period, while net annual use is expected to grow by 2.3% annually. EVs are expected to account for 13,961 GWh of grid demand in 2032, while heating electrification is expected to account for 7,334 GWh of demand that year. 

In terms of peak demand, ISO-NE expects significant growth in EV use, with transportation electrification is forecast to contribute 3,420 MW to the winter peak in 2032-2033. Heating electrification is forecast to contribute another 2,965 MW to the winter peak under average weather in 2032-2033, or 4,033 MW under colder-than-average weather. 

For comparison, in 2021 Maine's total net summer generating capacity was 5,026 MW, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. In other words, electrifying transportation and heating is projected to add more load to the region's grid than all of Maine currently consumes.