ISO-NE projects EV, heat pump load growth

New England's annual use of electricity and peak demand will increase slightly over the next 10 years, according to the latest forecast issued by the operator of the region's electric grid. In its 2020-2029 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission or CELT Report, grid operator ISO New England Inc. cites the additional energy and loads resulting from the new electrification forecast for beneficial electrification of electric vehicles (EVs) and air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) as the primary drivers of the projected increases.

ISO-NE develops an annual report providing a snapshot of the New England power system, including key information on generators, transmission projects, and long-term forecasts for energy consumption and peak demand. To develop projections of future electricity demand, ISO-NE first models gross energy consumption by considering state and regional economic forecasts, regional weather history, and forecasts for adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps, then applies modeling of energy-efficiency solar photovoltaic resources to yield a net long-term forecast.

According to the latest CELT report, ISO-NE projects that overall electricity use in New England (not including energy efficiency or behind-the-meter solar PV) will grow 1.4% annually over the 10-year period, from 145,882 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2020 to 165,603 GWh in 2029. Meanwhile, peak demand under typical summer peak weather conditions (called a “50/50” forecast) is expected to rise annually at a rate of 0.9%, from 29,224 megawatts (MW) in 2020 to 31,550 MW in summer 2029; peak demand under an extended heat wave or other extreme summer peak weather (called a “90/10” forecast) increases the gross forecast for peak demand to 31,182 MW in 2020 and 33,760 MW in 2029.

Considering overall electricity usage, including energy efficiency and behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources, ISO-NE projects total use to increase by 0.4% annually, from 124,184 GWh in 2020 to 128,781 GWh in 2029. Notably, last year's 2019 CELT Report projected an average annual decrease of -0.4% to overall electricity use.

According to ISO-NE, beneficial electrification of transportation and heating largely explain this projected shift from declining electricity use to increasing use. Transportation electrification from EVs is forecasted to contribute 282 MW to peak demand in 2029, or 414 MW to the winter peak in 2029. Heating electrification through heat pumps is forecasted to contribute 661 MW to the winter peak in 2029. Many states are increasingly recognizing that transportation is the largest contributor to energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, with space heating also a major contributor, and are now focusing efforts on reducing emissions from these sectors by displacing fossil fuel use through electrification.