Vermont solar update: mixed progress toward goals

Vermont could still meet its target to source at least 20 percent of the state’s electricity from in-state solar by 2025 if the percentage growth rate from the last five years continues, according to a recent report, but uneven growth and a slowdown in new capacity installations since 2016 mean significantly more solar will be required to meet the target than has been installed to date.

In 2016, the Vermont Energy Investment Corporation issued its Vermont Solar Market Pathways report, described as a compendium of (1) a summary report, (2) briefs relating to focus topics, (3) a brief on barriers to substantial amounts of solar installations and integration, and (4) methods and detailed tables of inputs and assumptions. The 2016 report concluded that Vermont is capable of meeting 20 percent of its electricity needs with solar, by 2025, and that meeting that goal would be less expensive than "business as usual."

Now, an updated report released in January 2020, Vermont Solar Market Pathways: Three-Year Update and Status Report, labels Vermont’s progress toward the solar target and projections for complementary technologies as "mixed":

For example,if the percentage growth rate from the last five years continues, Vermont can meet the solar development pathways target. But Vermont has not yet installed solar capacity at the annual installation rate necessary from 2020 to 2025 to meet the target.

According to the updated report, "growth has been uneven over the past five years in response to various market and incentive conditions, and the last three years have not matched the amount of capacity installed in 2016. Current challenges to continuing the pace of solar installation necessary to meet the targets are the possible phase-out of federal tax credits, recently added tariffs on imported equipment, and the addition of fees for new projects in certain areas."

The updated report also notes "increasing technical issues related to siting and integration of new installations" as the total capacity of solar installed on the system increases, along with "increased pressure to make sure the benefits and costs of solar development are equitably shared."

Finally, the report notes that solar is just one component of a holistic solution to address Vermont's “90 percent renewable energy by 2050” target, with significant needs to use "strategic electrification" to displace fossil fuel use in transportation and heating, as well as energy efficiency and non-solar renewables.