US energy-related carbon emissions expected to decline through 2021

U.S. energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to decrease annually through 2021, according to the latest projection by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

EIA's most recent Short Term Energy Outlook projects that energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease by 2.0% in 2020, and by another 1.5% in 2021. For petroleum-related CO2 emissions, which are dominated by transportation uses as well as heating in New England, EIA projects no change for 2020, with a slight decrease in 2021. These projected declines build on 2019's year-over-year reduction of 2.1%.

EIA's historic data shows volatility in carbon emissions levels. According to EIA, if its short-term forecast is validated, energy-related CO2 emissions will have declined in 7 of the 10 years from 2012 to 2021. The most recent reversal occurred in 2018, when EIA cites weather-related factors as having driven a 2.9% increase.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2020.

Over the long term, EIA attributes the declines in CO2 emissions to two trends that reduce the carbon intensity of electric power generation: the replacement of carbon-intensive coal-fired generation with more efficient, lower-carbon natural gas; and increased generation from wind, solar, and other renewable generation. According to EIA data, the share of coal-fired generation fell from 28% in 2018 to 24% in 2019 and will fall further to 21% in 2020 and 2021.